M15: Expected numbers of copies of a card
July 22, 2014 Leave a comment
Magic 2015 has 249 cards: 101 commons, 80 uncommons, 53 rares, and 15 mythics. This means that an 8-person M15/M15/M15 draft will have an average of 2.4 copies of a given common, 0.9 copies of a given uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given rare, and 0.2 copies of a given mythic.
Note that this rarity distribution is different than that of Magic 2010 through Magic 2014, all of which had 60 uncommons and so had an average of 1.2 copies of a given uncommon in an 8-person draft of that set. This difference will need to be accounted for when deciding on the viability of archetypes that require specific uncommons.
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