ORI: Elves

September 15, 2015 2 Comments

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There are a number of Elf tribal cards in Magic Origins: Dwynen’s Elite, Eyeblight Massacre, Gnarlroot Trapper, Shaman of the Pack, and Sylvan Messenger at uncommon, and Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen at rare. Gnarlroot Trapper and Sylvan Messenger require a critical mass of Elves, usually 10+, before they’re playable; the rest are playable without other Elves but get better as you have more. Does Magic Origins have enough playable Elves to make it likely that you’ll be able to draft that many playable Elves?

Let’s start by enumerating the playable Elves in the format at each rarity, along with their converted mana cost. (The only unplayable Elves in the format are Thornbow Archer and perhaps Sylvan Messenger.)

  • Common: Elvish Visionary (2cc), Leaf Gilder (2), Deadbridge Shaman (3), Eyeblight Assassin (3), Yeva’s Forcemage (3), Llanowar Empath (4)
  • Uncommon: Gnarlroot Trapper (1), Dwynen’s Elite (2), Shaman of the Pack (3), Sylvan Messenger (4)
  • Rare: Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen (4), Gilt-Leaf Winnower (5)
  • Mythic: Nissa Vastwood Seer (3)

This means that an average of 19 playable Elves are opened at an 8-person draft, of which 3.6 (the uncommons) are usually only valued by Elves decks. If there are no other players drafting Elves at the table and if we draft them highly enough, we can probably draft most of the uncommon Elves and about half of the rest, ending up with about 11.3 of the 19 Elves. This means that if you see a Gnarlroot Trapper or a Sylvan Messenger halfway through pack 1, there’s a reasonable chance that you can take it and draft enough Elves to make it good. (Note that even if your deck has 10 Elves, Sylvan Messenger is only going to net you 1 Elf on average, so it’s still worse than Llanowar Empath which gives you more control over your next draw steps.)

The 6 Elf tribal cards are all uncommons and rares, so there’re only about 5 of them in an 8-person draft. This means we will rarely want to focus on drafting Elves with the hope of picking up the tribal cards later in the draft. However, almost all the Elves are playable on their own merits, so if you’re in black and/or green, you’re likely to have some Elves, and you may be able to switch to an Elves deck if you see Elf tribal cards early enough in the draft.

Is it possible to have an Elf deck that’s not B/G? Of the 19 playable Elves in an average 8-person draft, 12 are green, 6 are black, and 1 is B/G. This means that B/X is unlikely, but G/X might be possible. If we assume that we get all the uncommon green Elves and half the rest, then we end up with an average of 7 Elves. That’s enough for some of the Elf tribal cards like Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen and Dwynen’s Elite, but not enough for Sylvan Messenger.

Finally, let’s take a look at the converted mana costs of the Elves in both colors. There are 0.9 at 1cc, 5.7 at 2cc, 8.3 at 3cc, 3.7 at 4cc, and 0.4 at 5cc. The high number of playable Elves at 3cc means that Gnarlroot Trapper is even better than I’d thought since it accelerates you to your 3-drops, and that Yeva’s Forcemage is a bit worse than it might otherwise be.

I have yet to draft a focused Elves deck. There have been 2 instances when I drafted a couple of Eyeblight Massacres in later packs, but only had about 6 Elves, which is the number you’d expect to end up with if you’re B/G but are not drafting Elves, and no one at the table is drafting Elves either. Given the numbers above, I expect I will attempt the archetype the next time I get passed Eyeblight Massacre, Gnarlroot Trapper, Shaman of the Pack, or Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen in pack 1.

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ORI: The sacrifice deck

September 9, 2015 Leave a comment

Magic Origins has a number of cards in red and black that allow you to sacrifice a creature, and several other cards that are better if you have access to a sacrifice outlet. Does it have enough cards in both categories to allow for a sacrifice deck? Let’s enumerate the cards in both categories.

  • Cards that allow you to sacrifice a creature:
    • Black: Nantuko Husk, Consecrated by Blood (uncommon), Fleshbag Marauder (uncommon), Tormented Thoughts (uncommon) = average of 5.1 copies in an 8-person draft
    • Red: Fiery Conclusion (uncommon) = 0.9 copies (there’s also Pia and Kiran Nalaar, but that only allows you to sacrifice artifacts)
    • Green: Evolutionary Leap (rare) = 0.4 copies
    • Red/Black: Blazing Hellhound (uncommon) = 0.9 copies
  • Cards that allow you to borrow/steal a creature:
    • Blue: Willbreaker (rare) = 0.4 copies
    • Red: Act of Treason, Enthralling Victor (uncommon) = 3.3 copies
  • Cards that can create multiple creatures:
    • Colorless: Foundry of the Consuls (uncommon), Hangarback Walker (rare) = 1.3 copies
    • White: Murder Investigation (uncommon), Gideon’s Phalanx (rare), Sigil of the Empty Throne (rare) = 1.7 copies
    • Blue: Aspiring Aeronaut, Whirler Rogue (uncommon), Thopter Spy Network (rare) = 3.7 copies
    • Black: Undead Servant, Priest of the Blood Rite (rare), Liliana Heretical Healer (mythic) = 3.0 copies
    • Red: Dragon Fodder, Ghirapur Gearcrafter, Thopter Engineer (uncommon), Flameshadow Conjuring (rare), Pia and Kiran Nalaar (rare) = 6.5 copies
    • Green: Dwynen’s Elite (uncommon), Zendikar’s Roil (uncommon), Nissa Sage Animist (mythic) = 2.0 copies
  • Cards with beneficial effects that trigger when a creature leaves the battlefield:
    • Colorless: excluding Hangarback Walker since it was listed previously, Runed Servitor since it benefits you and your opponent equally, and Guardian Automaton since it only gains you 3 life)
    • White: excluding Murder Investigation since it was listed previously
    • Black: Deadbridge Shaman, Shadows of the Past (uncommon) = 3.3 copies (excluding Liliana Heretical Healer since it was listed previously, and Infernal Scarring since sacrificing the enchanted creatures leaves you a card down)

In an 8-person draft, black has an average of 5.1 sacrifice outlets and 6.3 cards that have synergy with those cards (although 2.4 of those are Undead Servants, which only create more than 1 creature if you have multiple copies). Red is the other color with cards in both categories, and a R/B player has access to an average of 6.9 sacrifice outlets and 17.4 cards that have synergy with those cards.

Many of these cards will be drafted by other players. Let’s assume that there are 3 drafters in each color but no other drafters in this archetype, and let’s try to determine how many of these cards we’re likely to end up with:

  • Nantuko Husk and Fleshbag Marauder will be taken by other black players, but a little less highly. Let’s assume that we get half of the copies of these cards (1.6 copies).
  • Foundry of the Consuls and Hangarback Walker can be played by any player at the table. Foundry of the Consuls is only good in the artifacts and sacrifice archetypes, while Hangerback Walker is a high pick in any draft deck, so we’re likely to end up with 0.5 of these cards.
  • The red and black cards that create multiple creatures are valued by any deck playing that color, as are Enthralling Victor and Deadbridge Shaman. These 12.8 cards are shared by 3 players, so we can expect to get 4.3 of them.
  • We will probably get most or all copies of the remaining cards: Consecrated by Blood, Tormented Thoughts, Fiery Conclusion, and Blazing Hellhound for sacrifice outlets (3.6 copies), and Act of Treason and Shadows of the Past for the remaining categories (3.3 copies).

Combining these number, we find that we’re likely to end up with about 5 sacrifice outlets and about 8 cards that work with them. That’s enough that if we start our draft with a few of the top cards from either of these categories (Fleshbag Marauder, Enthralling Victor, Priest of the Blood Rite, or multiple Undead Servants), then we can reasonably attempt to draft this archetype.

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ORI: G/W renown vs. R/W renown

September 2, 2015 Leave a comment

The renown archetype in Magic Origins is usually thought of as G/W, but I’ve often felt that R/W is a better color pair for renown because red has more ways to get the renown creatures through, e.g., Subterranean Scout, Enthralling Victor, and Seismic Elemental. The only renown deck I’ve drafted so far was monowhite so I don’t have experience with either G/W or R/W renown, but let’s see if the numbers agree with my intuition.

The table below lists the white, red, and green cards in the set that either have renown (highlighted) or that can help renown creatures deal combat damage to your opponent, along with their cost and quality.

All 3 colors have similar numbers of renown creatures: 2-3 commons, 2 uncommons, and 1-2 rares. If we exclude unplayable (x), filler (~), sideboard (S), and TBD (?) cards, we get the following numbers:

  • White: 8 commons + 6 uncommons + 2 rares + 1 mythic = average of 25.6 cards in an 8-person draft, 7.4 of which are renown creatures
  • Red: 4 commons + 3 uncommons + 3 rares = average of 13.5 cards, 1.3 of which are renown creatures
  • Green: 5 commons + 3 uncommons + 1 rare = average of 15.1 cads, 7.0 of which are renown creatures

Based on these numbers, it appears my intuition was incorrect. G/W is a better color combination than R/W for a renown deck (and R/G is not feasible at all) for multiple reasons:

  • Green has far more playable renown creatures than red. This is especially important because there are only about 16 good renown creatures in a typical 8-person draft. Many of these are playable in other archetypes, and you may also be competing with another renown drafter, so this is the scarcest resource for the deck.
  • Green has the only 2-drop with renown other than Topan Freeblade. (It is an uncommon, however, so there are an average of only 0.9 copies of it in an 8-person draft, and it is not likely to be passed by other green drafters.)
  • Green has fewer support cards than red, but that is not the limiting factor in a renown deck since each color has more support cards than it has renown creatures. Also, white has as many support cards as red and green combined, so you should rarely lack support cards.

Red’s main advantage is that its support cards allow your creatures to get through instead of just winning combat, but that’s irrelevant if you don’t have enough good renown creatures. And if you don’t, some of the red support cards are considerably less impressive, while green’s solid creatures and combat tricks are more likely to leave you with a playable deck.

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ORI: Follow-up on the enchantments deck

August 26, 2015 Leave a comment

Shortly after concluding that an 8-person ORI/ORI/ORI draft cannot support an enchantments deck, I ended up drafting an Esper control deck with a minor enchantment subtheme.

Creatures (16):
– 2cc: 2 Screeching Skaab
– 3cc: 2 Scrapskin Drake, 2 Deadbridge Shaman, 2 Auramancer
– 4cc: 2 Separatist Voidmage, Tower Geist, Returned Centaur
– 5cc: Priest of the Blood Rite, Ringwarden Owl, Totem-Guide Hartebeest
– 6cc: Skaab Goliath

Non-creatures (6):
– 2cc: Swift Reckoning
– 3cc: Claustrophobia
– 4cc: Suppression Bonds, 2 Weight of the Underworld, Consecrated by Blood

Lands (18): 2 Evolving Wilds, 7 Islands, 6 Swamps, 3 Plains

Sideboard (18):
– Artifact: Alchemist’s Vial
– White: Healing Hands, 2 Yoked Ox
– Blue: Artificer’s Epiphany, Bone to Ash, Calculated Dismissal, Faerie Miscreant, Hydrolash, Nivix Barrier
– Black: Infinite Obliteration, Nightsnare, Rabid Bloodsucker
– Green: Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen, Llanowar Empath, Orchard Spirit, Might of the Masses, Sylvan Messenger

I first picked Priest of the Blood Rite over Whirler Rogue, followed by Swift Reckoning over Anchor to the AEther, and then Suppression Bonds over Separatist Voidmage. All of these were close calls that I expect others might disagree with. Unsurprisingly, the person to my left went blue after being passed 3 strong blue cards. When I saw a 4th pick Tower Geist, I decided I needed to be in blue, even though I realized that I’d probably already put the person to my left into blue. Unfortunately, he also went into black after opening Liliana, Heretical Healer in pack 2, so I didn’t get many good cards in either of my primary colors in that pack.

I ended up going 1-2 in matches with this deck (it was a casual draft where you can continue to play after you lose). Some of it was because I was in the same colors as the person to my left, some of it was due to the color issues associated with playing a 3-color deck, and some of it was because the deck couldn’t handle fast starts backed up by 1-2 removal spells, but some of it was also due to bad luck (multiple mulligans and multiple opponents with Gilt-Leaf Winnower). With better luck, this deck is probably capable of going 2-1.

Some lessons from the draft:

  • U/B/w is a good color combination for an enchantments deck. While W/B may seem like the natural color combination for this archetype, blue provides Claustrophobia and Separatist Voidmage, and most of the white cards in the deck (Totem-Guide Hartebeest, Suppression Bonds, Auramancer) work well even if they are in the splash color.
  • Totem-Guide Hartebeest is even better than I’d expected. Not only does it find you a removal spell, the 2/5 body is so relevant that I began to wonder if Catacomb Slug might be playable in this format. When I also had an Auramancer in hand, I would usually get Weight of the Underworld so I could kill multiple creatures.
  • Returned Centaur was also surprisingly good. It can block the numerous 2/2’s and 3/3’s in the format and can’t be killed by most of the removal in the format. And with 5 enchantments in the deck, there’s a 36% probabiility that this will put an enchantment in the graveyard for Auramancer to retrieve. (Obviously, the probability goes down if you draw a higher than average number of enchantments before playing it, and goes up if you draw a lower than average number.)
  • Screeching Skaab provides a much-needed 2-drop for the deck and has a 22% chance of putting an enchantment in the graveyard.
  • Consecrated by Blood was very weak in this deck and was sided out every match. I’d thought it might be a good finisher, but it doesn’t belong in a control deck.

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ORI: The enchantments deck

August 18, 2015 1 Comment

Magic Origins has a number of cards that get better if your deck has enchantments/auras. Other than Helm of the Gods and Herald of the Pantheon, all these cards are white and/or black.

  • Helm of the Gods, Blessed Spirits, Sigil of the Empty Throne, Blightcaster, Herald of the Pantheon, and Blood-Cursed Knight get better if you’re playing more enchantments.
  • Totem-Guide Hartebeest gets better if you’re playing more auras.
  • Auramancer and Starfield of Nyx get better if you’re playing more enchantments that are likely to end up in your graveyard (usually black removal auras).

Next, let’s look at all the enchantments that are might be playable. The usual evaluation key applies: B means bomb, + means exceptional, / means playable, ~ means filler/conditional, ? means I don’t know yet, and I’ve left out sideboard/unplayable cards. Cards are commons unless specified otherwise, and underlined cards are auras.

  • White: Grasp of the Hieromancer (?), Suppression Bonds (/), Knightly Valor (+, uncommon), Sigil of the Empty Throne (?, rare)
  • Blue: Claustrophobia (/), Stratus Walk (/), Sphinx’s Tutelage (?, uncommon), Thopter Spy Network (R, bomb)
  • Black: Infernal Scarring (~), Weight of the Underworld (~), Consecrated by Blood (~, uncommon)
  • Red: Molten Vortex (B, rare)
  • Green: – (all green enchantments are unplayable)

Things don’t look promising: green has no playable enchantments, red has 1 at rare, and black has 3 but they’re all filler (although I did lose to Consecrated by Blood last week, so maybe I’m undervaluing it). White has 1 common and 1 uncommon, for an average of 3.3 playable enchantments in an 8-person draft. Blue has 2 commons and 1 rare, for an average of 5.2 playable enchantments. Other than Stratus Walk, the playables are not likely to be passed by drafters in those colors. If we assume 3 drafters at the table are in each color, then you can expect to get passed 1.1 playable white enchantments and 3.3 playable blue enchantments. Even if we’re W/U and draft all 4.4 playable enchantments in our colors, we can only expect to draw 1 enchantment most games.

Based on this computation, the enchantments theme appears to be a trap. Helm of the Gods, Sigil of the Empty Throne, and Blightcaster are unplayable. Blessed Spirits, Herald of the Pantheon, and Blood-Cursed Knight are playable on their own merits, but if you’re playing Herald of the Pantheon or Blood-Cursed Knight, you’re probably not W/U and so you’re likely to have even fewer enchantments. Most of the playable enchantments are auras, so Totem-Guide Hartebeest is a reasonable draft pick if you have some auras in your deck, especially the removal auras. However, the only enchantment likely to end up in your graveyard regularly is Weight of the Underworld, so Auramancer and Starfield of Nyx are not worth drafting either.

If we assume that Grasp of the Hieromancer, Sigil of the Empty Throne, and Sphinx’s Tutelage are also playable but not valued outside this archetype, then you can expect to get passed 3.9 playable white enchantments and 4.2 playable blue enchantments. However, even if you’re in W/U and draft all 8 of these cards, you only end up with 3 enchantments, so my conclusions above don’t change.

In short, you’re unlikely to be able to draft enough enchantments to build this archetype in an 8-person ORI/ORI/ORI draft. However, Blessed Spirits and Totem-Guide Hartebeest are still playable, especially if you’re W/U.

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ORI: Evaluations

August 14, 2015 Leave a comment

This is an initial set of evaluations of the cards in Magic Origins. The main purpose is not to share deep insights into the new cards, but to figure out which cards need further analysis and to help evaluate those cards. For instance, artifact removal spells were very good in Mirrodin block, but are less relevant in Magic Origins.

Here’re what my various evaluations mean:

  • Bomb (B): Will usually win the game if not dealt with and also difficult to deal with or play around, e.g., large flyers or mass removal.
  • Exceptional (+): A superior card that will turn the tide in your favor, e.g., cheap unconditional removal or a 3/3 flyer for 4 mana.
  • Good (/): The bread and butter of most decks, e.g., a 2/2 flyer or a vanilla 3/3 for 3 mana.
  • Situational/Filler (~): Good in the right deck, filler in most others, e.g., a vanilla 2/2.
  • Sideboard (S): Useful to have in your sideboard, but not usually playable maindeck, e.g., artifact/enchantment removal or color hosers.
  • Unplayable (x): Should not be played except in the right deck or under exceptional circumstances, e.g., a vanilla 1/1. Some unplayable creatures can be sided in against the right deck, e.g., a vanilla 1/3 for 3 mana might still be sided in against an aggressive deck.
  • TBD (?): Requires more analysis or more experience with the format to evaluate, e.g., a card that depends on how many +1/+1 counters there are in the format.

The spreadsheet also has explanations for many of my evaluations in the Notes column. Here are some evaluations that might not be obvious at first glance.

  • Cleric of the Forward Order (~), Faerie Miscreant (S), Undead Servant (~), Infectious Bloodlust (x), Timberpack Wolf (/): there will be an average of only 2.4 of each of these in an 8-person ORI/ORI/ORI draft
  • Hallowed Moonlight (S): good against tokens and reanimation
  • Valor in Akros (x): worse than Ampryn Tactician since it doesn’t give the bonus immediately, and doesn’t come with a 3/3 body
  • Mizzium Meddler (+): can also move enhancing Auras spells to itself
  • Consecrated by Blood (~): difficult for B/R, B/G, or R/G to deal with
  • Graveblade Marauder (/): good even as a 1/4 deathtouch for 3 mana
  • Evolutionary Leap (x): note that the creature goes in your hand, not into play

Here are the cards that need additional analysis to fully evaluate, and what the evaluation will depend on. Some of these cards have an initial assessment based on a standalone evaluation, but that may change after further analysis.

  • Blessed Spirits, Sigil of the Empty Throne, Blightcaster, Herald of the Pantheon (/), Blood-Cursed Knight (~), Helm of the Gods: #/quality of enchantments
  • Totem-Guide Hartebeest: #/quality of auras
  • Auramancer, Starfield of Nyx (x): #/quality of removal auras that go to the graveyard
  • Enlightened Ascetic (S), Demolish (S), Smash to Smithereens (S), Caustic Caterpillar (S), Conclave Naturalists (+): #/quality of artifacts/enchantments
  • Eyeblight Massacre (+), Dwynen Gilt-Leaf Daen (+), Sylvan Messenger: #/quality of Elves
  • Nantuko Husk (/), Fiery Conclusion (~), Blazing Hellhound (/): #/quality of borrow effects, tokens, and creatures with leaves-the-battlefield triggers
  • Act of Treason: #/quality of sacrifice effects
  • Dreadwaters (x), Sphinx’s Tutelage: #/quality of mill cards
  • Chief of the Foundry: #/quality of artifact creatures
  • Goblin Piledriver: #/quality of Goblins
  • Orbs of Warding, Grasp of the Hieromancer: experience with the card/format
  • Reave Soul (/), Eyeblight Assassin (/), Gilt-Leaf Winnower (+): power/toughness distributions
  • Aerial Volley (S): #/quality of flyers

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ORI: Observations on removal

July 30, 2015 Leave a comment

Some observations about the removal in Magic Origins:

  • Every color has access to some form of mass removal, even green (Joraga Invocation and The Great Aurora). The main ones to avoid overextending into are Tragic Arrogance, Chandra’s Ignition (does damage equal to the power of a creature you control), Languish (4 toughness), Eyeblight Massacre (2 toughness), and Chandra’s Fury (1 toughness), and you also need to be careful about overattacking into a Hixus Prison Warden if your opponent has WW2 available. Eyeblight Massacre, Hixus Prison Warden, and Archangel of Tithes are the only ones that aren’t symmetric or mostly symmetric. While most of the mass removal is rare or mythic, Chandra’s Fury is a common, and Eyeblight Massacre and Joraga Invocation are uncommons.
  • The only non-mass removal spell that affects multiple creatures is Kytheon’s Irregulars, which can tap multiple creatures.
  • Other than Sentinel of the Eternal Watch (uncommon), Kytheon’s Irregulars (rare), and Molten Vortex (rare), the reusable removal in the format requires you to jump through some hoops:
    • Grasp of the Hieromancer, Mage-Ring Responder (rare), and Gideon, Battle-Forged (mythic) require a specific creature to attack.
    • Akroan Jailer and Mage-Ring Responder (rare) require a significant amount of mana to reuse their abilities.
    • Disciple of the Ring (mythic) requires exiling 1 instant/sorcery in your graveyard per use.
    • Blightcaster (uncommon) requires you to play enchantments.
    • Ghirapur AEther Grid (uncommon) and Pia and Kiran Nalaar (rare) require you to have artifacts in play (although Pia and Kiran Nalaar bring 2 of their own).
    • Blazing Hellhound (uncommon) requires you to sacrifice creatures.
  • Observations about the removal available in each color:
    • All colors have access to Throwing Knife and Meteorite at uncommon, both of which deal 2 points of damage. There’s also Mage-Ring Responder at rare, and Alchemist’s Vial at common can prevent a creature from attacking or blocking for a turn.
    • White has a good permanent creature removal suite, with Celestial Flare and Supression Bond at common, and Swift Reckoning at uncommon. Among the temporary removal, the commons are unimpressive, and include an aura that’s unplayable in most decks, an expensive tapper, and Heavy Infantry, which you rarely want multiples of. However, Sentinel of the Eternal Watch (uncommon), Kytheon’s Irregulars (rare), and Archangel of Tithes (mythic) are bombs.
    • Blue has a varied removal suite. There’s the usual bounce (Disperse, Separatist Voidmage at uncommon, and Harbinger of the Tides and Displacement Wave at rare), Anchor to the AEther (uncommon) for repulse, Disciple of the Ring (mythic) for tapping, Send to Sleep for freeze, Claustrophobia for permanently tapping a creature, Willbreaker (rare) for stealing creatures, and Turn to Frog (uncommon) for turning a creature into a 1/1 temporarily.
    • At common and uncommon, black has to spend 3 mana to kill X/1’s (Eyeblight Assassin), 4 mana to kill X/2’s (Weight of the Underworld at common, and Eyeblight Massacre and Blightcaster at uncommon), and 5 mana to kill larger creatures (Unholy Hunger at common, and Cruel Revival at uncommon). At rare, black has 4-mana spells that kill X/4’s (Languish and Demonic Pact). Black also has a few other assorted removal spells: Reave Soul, Fleshbag Marauder (uncommon), and Gilt-Leaf Winnower (rare). Other than Reave Soul, black usually has to spend 5 mana to kill even an X/3.
    • Red can kill 1-3 toughness creatures at common, has Fiery Conclusion (5 dmg) and Ravaging Blaze (X dmg) at uncommon, and has Exquisite Firecraft (4 dmg) and Chandra’s Ignition (your creature deals P dmg to all others) at rare. While red doesn’t have many ways to kill creatures with a toughness of 4 or more (Fiery Conclusion requires sacrificing a creature, Ravaging Blaze requires 6 mana, and the other options are rares), it can use falter effects (Seismic Elemental at uncommon), borrow effects (Act of Treason at common, and Enthralling Victor at uncommon), and Ravaging Blaze as finishers once its creatures are outclassed.
    • Green has a fight spell and a flyer removal spell at common, as it often does. It also has Joraga Invocation at uncommon, which I played once and had mixed results with, possibly because I had only 13 creatures in that deck. It’s great on a stalled board, but doesn’t let you win out of nowhere like Overrun can, even though it costs 1 more mana. I think it’s still playable in G/W reknown or B/G Elves since those decks tend to play a lot of small creatures that can get outclassed as the game goes on.
  • There are a number of discard spells that force you to discard multiple cards, which is worth keeping in mind when deciding how to play your hand out. Black has Nightsnare (1-2 cards) at common, Tormented Thoughts (# cards equal to the power of a sacrificed creature) at uncommon, and Demonic Pact (2 cards) at rare.

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ORI: List of removal

July 22, 2015 Leave a comment

This is a list of all the removal in Magic Origins, divided into permanent creature removal, temporary creature removal (such as bounce, tap, and falter effects), non-creature removal, and off-battlefield removal (hand, stack, and graveyard). The column labeled T (to the right of the permanent creature removal column) indicates how tough a creature the removal can handle; if there is no number in that column, the removal is independent of the creature’s toughness (it is a destroy effect unless specified otherwise). Conditional removal is indicated after the card name.

Italics indicates that one or more permanents have to remain in play for the effect to continue. Bold indicates a reusable or ongoing effect. Yellow highlight indicates that multiple targets are affected. Red highlight indicates mass removal that you may be able to avoid overextending into. Within each color/rarity, cards are ordered by how tough a creature they can kill, then by converted mana cost.

Unlike the list of tricks, this list does not try to provide an abbreviated description of the effect, but just references how it affect creatures. Here’s how to interpret those effects:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), borrow (untap & gain control until end of turn; the permanent gains haste), bounce (return to owner’s hand), bury (destroy & it cannot be regenerated), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), ETB (enters the battlefield), flicker (exile, then return to the battlefield), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), GY (graveyard), I (instant), L (land), loot X (draw X cards, then discard X cards), lose X (lose X life), mill N (put N cards from a library into a graveyard), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), raise (return card from your graveyard to your hand), reanimate (return card from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Effects (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Effects only target creatures unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the effect does X damage to any creature. If the effect also targets players, that won’t be mentioned here.
  • Descriptions sometimes mention other spells to avoid lengthy descriptions.

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ORI: Memorizing the instant-speed tricks

July 15, 2015 Leave a comment

I usually memorize the tricks in draft formats I play, so I can quickly determine what plays are available to my opponent given the mana they have open. I typically break tricks down into 5 categories:

  • Instant-speed creatures: Flash creatures, token generators, and spells that let you play reatures at instant speed.
  • Creature removal: This includes bounce, tapping, and other temporary removal.
  • Pump/protection: Pump spells primarily affect combat by giving a creature +M/+N, while protection spells are primarily used to save a creature from removal by giving it hexproof or protection from a color. However, +M/+N can save creatures from removal, and protection from a color can help creatures survive combat, so I’ve combined them.
  • Sideboard cards: This includes color hosers, artifact and enchantment removal, and conditional removal (e.g., Plummet, which only kills flyers). You don’t usually need to play around them in game 1.
  • Other: Everything else, including counterspells, card draw, and life gain. You may want to play around counterspells on occasion, and you may sometimes want to play around lifegain if you’re planning an alpha strike, but you don’t usually need to play around the rest.

This table shows the count of tricks in each category by color. Note that this count combines all rarities, since the primary purpose of this table is to help you remember the tricks in the set so you can quickly enumerate the relevant ones. If a card belongs to multiple categories, it will be counted in the leftmost column, e.g., Aerial Volley is listed under Sideboard Cards, even though it is also a removal spell.

TOTAL Sideboard Cards Instant-Speed Creatures Creature Removal/ Bounce Pump/ Protection Other Spells in “Other” Category
White 7 1 2 2 2
Blue 13 3 3 1 6 = 5 counterspells (Negate, Clash of Wills, Psychic Rebuttal, Calculated Dismissal, Bone to Ash) + 1 card draw (Artificer’s Epiphany)
Black 4 2 2
Red 6 1 4 1
Green 5 1 3 1 = Reclaim
Multicolor 2 2
TOTAL 37 3 7 11 9 7

Let’s examine this table and see what we can learn. We’ll ignore the Sideboard and Other categories for most purposes, since they are encountered less frequently.

  • There are 27 relevant tricks in the set: 40% are removal, 33% are pump/protection spells, and 17% are instant-speed creatures.
  • Of these, blue has no tricks that cost 1 mana. White, black, and green have 1 each, while red has 2. White’s tricks all cost 2 or less, except for its instant-speed creatures. All the black instant-speed removal spells cost 5 mana.
  • All the instant-speed creatures in the set require white and/or blue mana.
    • White has 2 instant-speed creatures, blue has 3, and W/U and U/G have 1 each.
    • The monocolored creatures are all rares other than Nivix Barrier, and are either 2/2’s or X/4’s.
    • The multicolored creatures are both uncommons and are X/3’s.
    • Excluding the largely unplayable Nivix Barrier, an 8-person draft will have an average of only 3.4 instant-speed creatures, so we don’t need to worry about them too much. There are also 2 instant-speed spells that can untap creatures in this format, but Enshrouding Mist only untaps a renowned creature and Bounding Krasis is a multicolor uncommon.
    • All 7 of these creatures also have additional effects when they enter the battlefield; Hixus Prison Warden and Harbinger of the Tides double as creature removal, Gideon’s Phalanx, Mizzium Meddler, Nivix Barrier, and Thunderclap Wyvern double as pump/protection, and Bounding Krasis taps/untaps a creature.
  • Other than the 4 flash creatures and a sideboard card (Hallowed Moonlight), the rest of the tricks are commons and uncommons.
  • Most colors have 4 removal + pump/protection spells, except red which has 5, and green which has 3. White and black both have 2 in each category. Blue and red have 1 pump/protection spell each (Hydrolash and Titan’s Strength), with the rest being removal. Predictably, green has 3 pump/protection (Aerial Volley is in the Sideboard category since it is unlikely to be playable maindeck).
  • There are 12 instant-speed removal spells. The red ones can kill creatures from 2-5 toughness, other than Ravaging Blaze which can kill larger creatures if you have enough mana. The rest are capable of handling creatures of any size.
    • 2-3 toughness: Fiery Impulse
    • 4 toughness: Chandra’s Fury
    • 5 toughness: Fiery Conclusion (uncommon)
    • X toughness: Ravaging Blaze (uncommon)
    • Any toughness: Celestial Flare, Swift Reckoning (uncommon), Disperse, Send to Sleep, Turn to Frog (uncommon), Unholy Hunger, Cruel Revival (uncommon). The 2 instant-speed creatures that double as creature removal (Hixus Prison Warden and Harbinger of the Tides) can also handle creatures of any size.
  • All pump/protection spells other than Hydrolash are commons. In addition, many of the instant-speed creatures, have a pump/protection effect when they enter the battlefield.
    • The pump spells are fairly well spread across the spectrum: Touch of Moonglove gives +1/+0 (and deathtouch), Enshrouding Mist gives +1/+1, Mighty Leap gives +2/+2, Titan’s Strength gives +3/+1, Titanic Growth gives +4/+4, and Might of the Masses gives +N/+N where N is the number of creatures you control. Among the instant-speed creatures, Thunderclap Wyvern (uncommon) gives all other flyers on its side +1/+1. That is also the only instant-speed pump spell that affects multiple creatures.
    • Hydrolash (uncommon) and Vine Snare are Fog effects. Among the instant-speed creatures, Nivix Barrier gives a single creature -4/-0.
    • The only protection-only spell is Dark Dabbling, which regenerates a creatures (or regenerates all your creatures if you have spell mastery). Enshrouding Mist also doubles as a protection spell since it prevents all damage to the targeted creature. Among the instant-speed creatures, Gideon’s Phalanx (rare) can make your creatures indestructible, while Mizzium Meddler (rare) can change a spell/ability’s target to itself.
  • The 3 Sideboard tricks include artifact removal, flyer removal, and a spell that hurts reanimation/token strategies.
  • The 7 Other tricks include 5 counterspells, a card draw spell, and Reclaim.

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ORI: Expected numbers of copies of a card

July 9, 2015 Leave a comment

Magic Origins has 101 commons, 80 uncommons, 55 rares, and 16 mythics. This means that an 8-person ORI/ORI/ORI draft will have an average of 2.4 copies of a given common, 0.9 copies of a given uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given rare, and 0.2 copies of a given mythic.

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