M14: Beasts

July 19, 2013 Leave a comment

Let’s look at another possible tribal deck in M14, namely Beasts. I drafted that deck recently after getting passed a few Advocates of the Beast, but only ended up with 3 Beasts to go with my 5 Advocates (I did pass a 4th Beast for a Chandra’s Outrage since I only had one other removal spell). Are there enough Beasts in M14 that I should have tried to draft that deck? Let’s crunch some numbers.

Gatherer lists 5 cards in M14 that are Beasts or produce them: Garruk’s Horde, Kalonian Tusker, Marauding Maulhorn, Primeval Bounty, and Rumbling Baloth.

  • Garruk’s Horde and Primeval Bounty are rare, so you can’t really expect to get either of them, plus they hit the table sufficiently late in the game that if you don’t already have another Beast before them, your Advocate is just a 2/3 for 3 mana until turn 7.
  • Kalonian Tusker is the best complement to Advocate of the Beast because it gets a counter at the end of turn 3 if you play it on turn 2 followed by Advocate on turn 3. Unfortunately, it’s an uncommon and is likely to be drafted highly by any green player, so you shouldn’t expect to see too many of them.
  • Marauding Maulhorn and Rumbling Baloth are commons, but both cost 4, which means you have to wait an extra turn to get a counter. They are also both quite playable in non-Beast decks, especially Rumbling Baloth, so you should not expect to pick them up late.

With 2 commons, 1 uncommon, and 2 rares, an average 8-person M14 draft will have about 7 Beasts, some of which we expect will be drafted by non-Beast players. So, G/R Beasts is a feasible deck but can only support one player at a table. Moreover, you should draft it only if you are being passed Beasts rather than because you’re being passed Advocates, as I did. Advocates are good in a Beasts deck, but they’ll come around late because non-Beast decks have better commons at 3 mana, such as Rootwalla and Verdant Haven.

Admittedly, I’d already drafted 2 Doors of Destinies, so I was looking to draft a tribal deck. I wanted to draft Slivers, but didn’t see any good Slivers until late in pack 2, although with 2 Doors I could have tried to force Slivers and hoped to reap the rewards in pack 2. In my next post, I’ll examine whether there are any other good tribes in M14 besides Slivers and Beasts that would have allowed me to play the Doors instead of having to leave them in my sideboard.

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M14: Slivers

July 18, 2013 Leave a comment

Okay, now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s see if we can use that information to figure out whether Slivers is a good deck to draft in M14. Here’s a list of all the Slivers in the set along with their rarity, mana cost, and my prior evaluation of them:

  • White: Sentinel Sliver (C, 2, good), Hive Stirrings (C, 3, filler), Steelform Sliver (U, 3, good), Bonescythe Sliver (R, 4, bomb)
  • Blue: Galerider Sliver (R, 1, exceptional)
  • Black: Syphon Sliver (R, 3, good)
  • Red: Striking Sliver (C, 1, good), Blur Sliver (C, 3, good), Battle Sliver (U, 5, exceptional), Thorncaster Sliver (R, 5, bomb)
  • Green: Predatory Sliver (C, 2, exceptional), Groundshaker Sliver (C, 7, unplayable), Manaweft Sliver (U, 2, exceptional), Megantic Sliver (R, 6, bomb)
  • Artifact: Sliver Construct (C, 3, filler)

White, red, and green have the most and best Slivers. There is relatively little manafixing in M14 — only Verdant Haven at common, and Darksteel Ingot, Manaweft Sliver, and Shimmering Grotto at uncommon — so we probably want to stick to a 2-color Sliver deck (possibly with a third splash color) unless we get multiple Manaweft Slivers, which is unlikely since it’s an uncommon and is playable in non-Sliver decks. How do we decide whether to aim for W/R, W/G, or R/G?

We can start by looking at the quality of the Slivers in each color. In my opinion, green has the best Slivers across all rarities, followed by red, and then white. By this measure, G/R is the best color pair for Slivers, followed by G/W and then R/W.

Another thing to keep in mind is the mana costs of the Slivers in each color. Green and red may have the best Slivers, but if they all fall at the same spot in the mana curve, we may be better off drafting a different color pair. This spreadsheet shows the number and quality of Slivers at each mana cost and rarity for the 3 color pairs being considered (Sliver Construct is listed for each of them). From this, it seems like G/R has the best distribution of Slivers across the mana curve, while R/W has a bit of a glut at 3.

A third thing to consider is whether any of the common/uncommon Slivers in a color pair have particular synergy. The main synergy that stands out to me is that power-enhancing Slivers — Predatory Sliver (G) and Battle Sliver (R) — work well with Striking Sliver (R), Steelform Sliver (W), and Hive Stirrings (W). While W/R has the most creatures in the list above, Battle Sliver is an uncommon, and first strike, +0/+1, and 2 1/1 Slivers are all less exciting if you don’t have a way to increase their power. This suggests that most Sliver decks should run green if possible so they have access to power enhancement at common.

Finally, let’s look at is which Slivers are most likely to be drafted by non-Sliver players. In my estimate, Predatory Sliver, Manaweft Sliver, and Bonescythe Sliver are most likely to be poached by non-Sliver players. (I had 2 Predatory Slivers and 1 Battle Sliver in a G/R Beast deck recently, and they were great — my deck really needed 2-drops, and there was more than one game where I had 2 3/3 Predatory Slivers attacking on turn 4.) This is unfortunate for green Sliver players, and may lead to Sliver decks having to go R/W in some cases.

Two more things to consider. First, Slivers are likely to be very popular at casual drafts, especially early in the format where other archetypes are less known, so it may be worth staying away for a bit unless you find yourself being passed Predatory Slivers. Also, I haven’t considered other non-Sliver cards in green, red, and white that may work particularly well with Slivers, such as Hunt the Weak if you have some power/toughness enhancing Slivers. Look for such cards and keep them in mind when figuring out what color pair you want to be in when drafting Slivers.

EDIT: I forgot one other piece of analysis I sometimes do. M14 has 101 commons, 60 uncommons, 53 rares, and 15 mythics. Of the playable Slivers, there are 6 commons, 3 uncommons, and 5 rares. That means than an average 8-person draft will have about 20 playable Slivers, which is probably enough to support 1-2 Sliver decks per table.

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M14: Evaluations

July 17, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014 Evaluations

This is an initial set of evaluations of the cards in Magic 2014. Here’re what my various evaluations mean:

  • Bomb (B): Will usually win the game if not dealt with and also difficult to deal with, e.g., mass removal or large flyers.
  • Exceptional (+): A superior card that will turn the tide in your favor, e.g., most unconditional removal that isn’t overcosted or a 3/3 flyer for 4 mana.
  • Good (/): The bread and butter of most decks, e.g., a 4/4 for 4 mana or a 2/2 flyer for 3 mana.
  • Situational/Filler (~): Good in the right deck, filler in most others, e.g., a vanilla 2/1 in a deck that is not particularly aggressive.
  • Sideboard (S): Useful to have in your sideboard, but not usually playable maindeck, e.g., artifact/enchantment destruction or color hosers that aren’t good if you’re not playing against those colors.
  • Unplayable (x): Should not be played except in the right deck or under exceptional circumstances, e.g., mill effects or a vanilla 1/1 for 1 mana. Some unplayable creatures can be sided in against the right deck, e.g., a vanilla 2/4 for 4 mana.
  • TBD (?): Requires more analysis or more experience with the format to evaluate, e.g., a card that depends on how many playable enchantments there are in the format.

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M14: Creatures

July 16, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014 Creatures

This is a list of all creatures in M14 broken down along the following axes:

  • Flyers vs. non-flyers (defenders are listed separately, regardless of whether or not they fly).
  • Must-kill vs. other. I use “must-kill” to mean that the creature needs to be dispatched if it is controlled by an opponent, otherwise you are unlikely to win the game. This helps determine the value of removal in the format, especially removal that kills/exiles creatures or turns off activated abilities. Powerful creatures that must attack in order to be problematic are usually not categorized as must-kill since they can potentially be blocked, e.g., Serra Angel and Liliana’s Reaver. Creatures with other kinds of evasion (e.g., intimidate, unblockable) are usually listed as must-kill if they have power >= 2. This is necessarily a subjective evaluation — for instance, I categorized Advocate of the Beast as must-kill, but not Warden of Evos Isle and Banisher Priest.
  • Power/toughness.
  • Color/rarity.

This list includes all creatures, including those that are unlikely to see play (such as a vanilla 1/1 for 1 mana), since the playability of a creature is determined in large part by the power/toughness of other creatures in the format, and by how much removal the set has and how good it is.

Some initial thoughts:

  • With 2 exceptions, all common/uncommon must-kill creatures have toughness <= 3.
  • 3 is the most common toughness among common flyers, but none have toughness > 3 (other than Angelic Wall, which is listed under defenders and not flyers). 2 uncommon flyers have a toughness of 4, but none have a toughness > 4.
  • Among common non-flyers, the most common power is 2 and the most common toughness is 1. Among uncommon non-flyers, the most common power is 2 and the most common toughness is 3. Only 3 common/uncommon creatures have power > 4 and only 4 have toughness > 4.

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M14: Commentary on removal

July 15, 2013 Leave a comment

White, Blue, and Black all have removal spells at common and uncommon that don’t care about a creature’s toughness:

  • White: Pacifism; Celestial Flare; Banisher Priest; (Master of Diversion)
  • Blue: Claustrophobia; (Time Ebb; Disperse; Frost Breath)
  • Black: Liturgy of Blood; Doom Blade

Of the common/uncommon removal spells that can only kill creatures with a certain toughness, 5 kill 1-toughness creatures, 3 kill 2-toughness creatures, 2 kill 3-toughness creatures, and 1 kills 4-toughness creatures. So creatures with 5+ toughness are safe against R/G decks unless they have multiple removal spells, Act of Treason + Barrage of Expendables, Hunt the Weak + a sufficiently large creature, or Plummet against a flyer.

There are 4 mass removal spells: Planar Cleansing; Shrivel; Windstorm; and Rachet Bomb.  The only spell that kills multiple creatures without being mass removal is Flames of the Firebrand.  And the only reusable removal spells at common/uncommon are Blightcaster, Barrage of Expendables (sort of), and Rod of Ruin.

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M14: List of removal spells

July 12, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014 Removal

This is a list of all the removal in the set, divided into permanent creature removal, temporary creature removal (such as bounce, tap, and falter effects), non-creature removal, and not on battlefield removal (hand, stack, graveyard). The column labeled T (to the right of the permanent creature removal column) indicates how tough a creature the removal can handle; if there is no number in that column, the removal is independent of the creature’s toughness. Conditional removal is indicated after the spell name in most cases.

This list uses most of the same abbreviations used by the list of instant-speed tricks. Italics indicates that the spell is a creature that has to remain in play for the effect to occur. Bold indicates reusable removal or removal that can kill multiple permanents. Highlight cells indicate mass removal that you should be careful to not overextend into.

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M14: List of instant-speed tricks

July 11, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014 Tricks

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in the format. The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does. Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell. Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables, so let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity. Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell is assumed to have one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost has a mana cost of 2W. I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost or costs more than the column it is specified in. Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return permanent to owner’s hand), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), flyer (creature with flying), gain X (gain X life), L (land), opp (opponent), P (player), prot (protection), reanimate (return permanent from the graveyard to the battlefield), sac (sacrifice), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., Wild Ricochet is described as Redirect + Fork to avoid having to write the full description.

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M14: Compact FAQ

July 10, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014 FAQ

And here’s a compact version of the Magic 2014 FAQ (14 pages vs. 35 pages for the original).

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M14: Compact spoiler

July 9, 2013 Leave a comment

Magic 2014

This is a 7-page version of the full Magic 2014 spoiler. The card image gallery at DailyMTG is 43 pages and the printable spoiler at MTGSalvation is 63 pages so this I’m hoping this saves trees and it’s certainly easier to carry around in your pocket.

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