DTK: Observations on megamorphs

Here are my observations on the creatures with megamorph in Dragons of Tarkir:

  • The set has 30 creatures with megamorph: 11 commons, 12 uncommons, 5 rares, and 2 mythics. Dragons of Tarkir has the same rarity distribution as Khans of Tarkir, so a DTK/DTK/FRF draft will have an average of 1.6 copies of a given common, 0.6 copies of a given uncommon, 0.26 copies of a given rare, and 0.13 copies of a given mythic. This means that an 8-person draft will have an average of 26.4 creatures with megamorph, or about 3 per player.
  • Blue and green have 8 megamorphs each, white and red have 5 each, and black has 4. Unlike in Khans of Tarkir, there are no colorless or multicolor megamorphs.
    • Blue and green each have 3 megamorphs at common, 3 at uncommon, 1 at rare, and 1 at mythic, so they have an average of 7 creatures each in a typical 8-person draft.
    • White and red have 2 megamorphs at common, 2 at uncommon, and 1 at rare, so they have an average of 4.66 creatures each.
    • Black has 1 megamorph at common, 2 at uncommon, and 1 at rare, so it has an average of 3 creatures.
  • As in Khans of Tarkir, if your opponent has less than 5 mana, their face-down creature cannot beat a 2/2 unless they have a combat trick. However, if they have multiple face-down creatures, one of them could be a Guardian Shield-Bearer, which could let their other face-down creature beat a 2/2 in combat. (They could also have an on-board effect like Salt Road Ambushers that helps them win the combat.)
  • 8 of the 13 creatures with a megamorph cost of 4 or less are 3/2’s when turned face up. There are also 3 2/2’s, a 4/2, and a 6/2. (Marang River Skeleton can regenerate, but it takes 4 mana to unmorph and 1 mana to regenerate, so it still takes 5 mana to beat a 2/2 if Marang River Skeleton is face down.)
  • 8 of the 17 creatures with a megamorph cost of 5 or more are 4/4’s when turned face up. Tnere is also a 2/2 (it’s a double striker, so it still beats a 2/2 in combat), a 3/4, a 4/3, 2 4/5’s, a 5/7, a 6/6, and 2 7/6’s (one of which is a defender).
  • Each color has a rare megamorph that can potentally provide card advantage for less than 5 mana: Hidden Dragonslayer, Stratus Dancer, Silumgar Assassin, Ire Shaman, and Den Protector. In addition, green has Ainok Survivalist at uncommon.
  • Once you get to 5 mana, there are another 3 megamorphs that can potentally provide card advantage: Monastery Loremaster, Silumgar Spell-Eater (uncommon), and Shorecrasher Elemental (mythic). Attacking into Monastery Loremaster with a creature that’s 2/4 or smaller can lead to getting 3-for-1’d, so it may make sense to play around this common if your opponent has an instant, sorcery, enchantment, artifact, or planeswalker in their graveyard. Silumgar Spell-Eater only results in a 3-for-1 if you cast a spell during combat. Shorecrasher Elemental can’t usually result in a 3-for-1 in single combat; while it can flicker to save itself from removal, that also takes it out of combat. Also, it’s a mythic and so you’re unlikely to face it often.
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