MM2: How many bounce lands is too many?

May 30, 2015 1 Comment

A lot of good players like to play as many bounce lands as they can get their hands on, but doing so also increases the risk of having to mulligan hands where your only lands are bounce lands. It may seem unlikely, but it happened to me thrice in my first 8 matches of Modern Masters 2015. (I had 3-4 bounce lands in each of those decks.) Was I just unlucky? Let’s try to quantify the risk.

An 8-person draft has about 1 copy of any given uncommon on average and there are 10 bounce lands, all at uncommon, so the typical draft will have about 10 bounce lands. This is only about 1.25 per player, but for our analysis we’ll consider decks with up to 10 bounce lands. We’ll also assume 40-card decks with 17-18 lands and where each bounceland replaces about 1.5 lands. I’m also going to ignore the case where you only have 1 bounceland and no other lands, since you wouldn’t usually keep a hand with only 1 land in most Limited games, but the risk of this does increase slightly since you’re running fewer lands in the deck.

# bounce lands # other lands P(2+ bounce lands & no other lands
2 15 0.07%
2 14 0.09%
3 14 0.26%
3 13 0.35%
3 12 0.47%
4 12 0.85%
4 11 1.12%
5 11 1.71%
5 10 2.23%
5 9 2.88%
6 9 3.93%
6 8 5.03%
7 8 6.41%
7 7 8.13%
7 6 10.24%
8 6 12.43%
8 5 15.53%
9 5 18.16%
9 4 22.55%
9 3 27.81%
10 3 31.60%
10 2 38.74%

With 3 bounce lands and 14 other lands, the probability of all the lands you draw being bounce lands is only 0.26%, and with 4 bounce lands and 12 other lands, the probability only goes up to 0.85%, so the risk isn’t as high as it seemed from my small sample size. As long as you have fewer than 6 bounce lands, the probability is less than 3%, which is well worth the virtual card advantage of drawing a bounce land, and the greater density of spells in your deck. The risk involved with running 6+ bounce lands might still be worthwhile if you compare it to the lowered probability of getting stuck at 2-3 mana sources, the increased mana you have available for multikicker/X spells, and the ease of splashing cards from other colors and maximizing sunburst cards. But it’s always better to enter such situations with a good understanding the risks involved.

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MM2: Expected numbers of copies of a card

May 29, 2015 Leave a comment

Modern Masters 2015 has the same rarity distribution as Khans of Tarkir: 101 commons, 80 uncommons, 53 rares, and 15 mythics. However, each pack also has a foil card. According to some sources, a box typically has about 16 foil commons, 6 foil uncommons, and 2 foil rares (presumably 1/8th of which are mythics). This means that an 8-person MM2/MM2/MM2 draft will have an average of 2.5 copies of a given common, 1.0 copies of a given uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given rare, and 0.2 copies of a given mythic.

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MM2: Observations on removal

May 28, 2015 Leave a comment

Some observations about the removal in Modern Masters 2015:

  • Other than Savage Twister and Shrivel, the global removal is rare or mythic and costs 6 or more (All Is Dust, Elesh Norn Grand Cenobite, Midnight Banshee, and Wildfire).
  • There are relatively few non-global removal spells that kill multiple creatures, and all those that exist require red mana (Wrap in Flames, Electrolyze, and Comet Storm).
  • Other than Blinding Souleater, Midnight Banshee, and Karn Liberated, the reusable removal in the format comes with limitations:
    • Mortarpod, Plagued Rusalka, and Drooling Groodion require mana and sacrificing a creature.
    • Bloodshot Trainee requires an effect that increases its power by 2 or more. Similarly, Spikeshot Elder only does 1 point of damage per activation without such an effect.
    • Niv-Mizzet the Firemind requires card draw effects to do more than 2 points of damage a turn.
    • Tumble Magnet requires proliferate effects, although an aggressive affinity deck might play it even without those.
    • Waxmane Baku requires Spirits.
    • Air Servant only affects fliers.
  • Observations about the removal spells available in each color:
    • All colors have access to Blinding Souleater and Gut Shot at common, and Dismember, Mortarpod, and Tumble Magnet at uncommon.
    • White has my favorite removal suite, with Sunlance and Arrest at common, and Dispatch and Oblivion Ring at uncommon. Sunlance is a sorcery-speed Lightning Bolt that can’t target white creatures or players, but is common instead of uncommon and is less likely to be splashed by non-white players. Dispatch requires metalcraft, but is otherwise an instant-speed Bone Splinters that prevents soulshift and doesn’t require you to sacrifice a creature. On the other hand, Arrest and Oblivion Ring may suffer splash damage if people maindeck Terashi’s Grasp and Sundering Vitae to deal with artifacts.
    • Blue has Narcolepsy, which is better on defense than offense, plus 5 bounce spells and 5 counterspells. There are no effects that steal creatures in this format.
    • Most of black’s common removal only kills creatures with 1 toughness. The only common black spells that kill larger creatures are Grim Affliction, Nameless Inversion, and Bone Splinters (which only shines in B/G or G/X/b since those tend to have tokens).
    • Red’s common removal is able to kill a larger range of creatures than black’s, but the cheaper spells usually only do 2-3 points of damage, and the ones that do 4+ points of damage usually require 5+ mana. There are no effects that steal creatures in this format.
    • Green has no fight effects in this format, and only has Plummet and Sundering Vitae for removal.
  • There’s only 4 discard effect in the format: Waking Nightmare at common, Dimir Guildmage at uncommon, and Vendilion Clique and Karn Liberated at mythic.

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MM2: List of removal

May 25, 2015 Leave a comment

This is a list of all the removal in Modern Masters 2015, divided into permanent creature removal, temporary creature removal (such as bounce, tap, and falter effects), non-creature removal, and off-battlefield removal (hand, stack, and graveyard). The column labeled T (to the right of the permanent creature removal column) indicates how tough a creature the removal can handle; if there is no number in that column, the removal is independent of the creature’s toughness (it is a destroy effect unless specified otherwise). Conditional removal is indicated after the card name.

Italics indicates that one or more permanents have to remain in play for the effect to continue. Bold indicates a reusable or ongoing effect. Yellow highlight indicates that multiple targets are affected. Red highlight indicates mass removal that you may be able to avoid overextending into. Within each color/rarity, cards are ordered by how tough a creature they can kill, then by converted mana cost.

Unlike the list of tricks, this list does not try to provide an abbreviated description of the effect, but just references how it affect creatures. Here’s how to interpret those effects:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), borrow (untap & gain control until end of turn; the permanent gains haste), bounce (return to owner’s hand), bury (destroy & it cannot be regenerated), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), ETB (enters the battlefield), flicker (exile, then return to the battlefield), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), GY (graveyard), I (instant), L (land), loot X (draw X cards, then discard X cards), lose X (lose X life), mill (put cards from a library into a graveyard), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), raise (return card from your graveyard to your hand), reanimate (return card from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Effects (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Effects only target creatures unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the effect does X damage to any creature. If the effect also targets players, that won’t be mentioned here.
  • Descriptions sometimes mention other spells to avoid lengthy descriptions, e.g., Silumgar Spell-Eater’s unmorph effect is described as “Mana Leak” to avoid having to write “counter target spell unless its controller pays 3.”

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MM2: Sealed pool #1

May 24, 2015 1 Comment

Here’s the sealed pool I opened at a Modern Masters 2015 release event yesterday. It didn’t seem particularly strong, but I went 2-1-1 with the deck I built, and the draw would have been a win if I’d had another turn, while the loss was due to my opponent drawing a rare bomb followed by a mythic while I drew lands. How would you have built this deck? (I’ll post my built in the blog comments later this week.)

Lands
Azorius Chancery
Eye of Ugin
Gruul Turf
Izzet Boilerworks
Simic Growth Chamber

Colorless
Ulamog’s Crusher

Artifact
Alloy Myr
Blinding Souleater
Cathodion
Copper Carapace
Cranial Plating
2 Darksteel Axe
Flayer Husk
2 Myr Enforcer
Precursor Golem
Runed Servitor
Skyreach Manta
Sphere of the Suns
2 Wayfarer’s Bauble

White
Apostle’s Blessing
Arrest
3 Conclave Phalanx
Court Homunculus
Dispatch
Fortify
Hikari, Twilight Guardian
Kor Duelist
2 Mighty Leap
Moonlit Strider
Skyhunter Skirmisher
Spectral Procession
Sunlance
Terashi’s Grasp

Blue
Air Servant
Cloud Elemental
Guile
Helium Squirter
Hurkyl’s Recall
2 Mana Leak
2 Repeal
2 Steady Progress
Stoic Rebuttal
Vigean Graftmage
Wings of Velis Vel

Black
Bone Splinters
2 Death Denied
Duskhunter Bat
Grim Affliction
Shrivel
Sickle Ripper
Spread the Sickness

Red
Blades of Velis Vel
2 Fiery Fall
Goblin Fireslinger
3 Gut Shot
Soulbright Flamekin
Spikeshot Elder
2 Tribal Flames
Viashino Slaughtermaster

Green
All Sun’s Dawn
2 Aquastrand Spider
Cytoplast Root-Kin
Kozilek’s Predator
Nest Invader
Rampant Growth
Root-Kin Ally
Scatter the Seeds
Scion of the Wild
3 Sylvan Bounty
Vines of Vastwood

Multicolor
Agony Warp
Sigil Blessing

Hybrid
Dimir Guildmage

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MM2: Memorizing the instant-speed tricks

May 23, 2015 Leave a comment

With Modern Masters 2015 release events this weekend and GP Las Vegas coming up, it’s worthwhile trying to memorize the list of instant-speed tricks in the format so you don’t get blindsided by a trick you didn’t anticipate.

I normally break tricks down into 5 categories:

  • Instant-speed creatures: Flash creatures, token generators, and spells that let you play reatures at instant speed.
  • Creature removal: This includes bounce, tapping, and other temporary removal.
  • Pump/protection: Pump spells primarily affect combat by giving a creature +M/+N, while protection spells are primarily used to save a creature from removal by giving it hexproof or protection from a color. However, +M/+N can save creatures from removal, and protection from a color can help creatures survive combat, so I’ve combined them.
  • Sideboard cards: This includes color hosers, artifact and enchantment removal, and conditional removal (e.g., Plummet, which only kills flyers). You don’t usually need to play around them in game 1.
  • Other: Everything else, including counterspells, card draw, and life gain. You may want to play around counterspells on occasion, and you may sometimes want to play around lifegain if you’re planning an alpha strike, but you don’t usually need to play around the rest.

This table shows the count of tricks in each category by color. Note that this count combines all rarities, since the primary purpose of this table is to help you remember the tricks in the set so you can quickly enumerate the relevant ones. If a card belongs to multiple categories, it will be counted in the leftmost column, e.g., Combust is listed under sideboard cards, even though it is also a removal spell.

TOTAL Sideboard Cards Instant-Speed Creatures Creature Removal/ Bounce Pump/ Protection Other Spells in “Other” Category
Colorless 5 1 2 2
White 6 1 1 1 3
Blue 12 2 1 3 1 5 = 3 counterspells (Mana Leak, Remand, Stoic Rebuttal) + 2 card draw (Telling Time, Proliferate)
Black 4 3 1 = Death Denied
Red 8 2 4 2
Green 5 2 1 1 1 = Sylvan Bounty
Multicolor 5 1 3 1
TOTAL 45 8 4 16 10 7

Let’s examine this table and see what we can learn. We’ll ignore the Sideboard and Other categories for the purposes of this discussion, since those are often not relevant.

  • There are 30 tricks in the set, about half of which are removal and a third of which are pump/protection.
  • Every color has access to the 4 colorless tricks, 2 of which are removal (Dismember and Gut Shot) and 2 of which are pump/protection (Mutagenic Growth and Apostle’s Blessing).
  • White, blue, and multicolor have 5 tricks each. All 3 have an instant-speed creature (Raise the Alarm, Vendillion Clique, and Mystic Snake). White has 1 removal spell and 3 pump/protection spells, while blue and multicolor have 3 removal spells and 1 pump/protection spell each. (Blue’s removal spells are all bounce spells.)
  • Black has 3 tricks, all of which are removal. Red has 6, 4 of which are removal and 2 of which are pump.
  • Green has only 2 tricks, 1 of which produces instant-speed creatures and the other of which is a pump spell.
  • There are 4 instant-speed creatures, none of which are particularly large (multiple 1/1s at common, a 2/2 at rare, and a 3/1 flyer at mythic).
  • The 16 instant-speed removal spells are mostly commons and uncommons, and vary widely in the size of the creatures they can handle.
    • 1 toughness: Gut Shot, Instill Infection
    • 2 toughness: Burst Lightning, Grim Affliction, Electrolyze (uncommon)
    • 3 toughness: Nameless Inversion, Lightning Bolt (uncommon), Agony Warp (uncommon)
    • 5 toughness: Fiery Fall, Dismember (uncommon)
    • Any toughness: Vapor Snag, Repeal, Dispatch (uncommon), Wrecking Ball (uncommon), Cyrptic Command (rare), Comet Storm (mythic)
  • Most pump/protection spells are commons, with only Mutagenic Growth and Sigil Blessing at uncommon.
    • Of the pump spells, there are 2 each that grant +2/+2, +2/+0 to multiple creatures (Fortify can also be used to give +0/+2), +3/+3 (Sigil Blessing also gives +1/+1 to all your other creatures), and +4/+4 (Wings of Velis Vel only gives +4/+4 to graft creatures, but that’s also the deck that will tend to play this card the most).
    • There are 3 pump spells that affect multiple creatures: 1 gives +2/+0 (and changeling) to 2 creatures, 1 gives +2/+0 or +0/+2 to all your creatures, and 1 gives +1/+1 to all your creatures and an additional +2/+2 to 1 of them.
    • There are 3 protection spells: 1 gives hexproof (and is also a pump spell if kicked), 1 gives protection from a color, and 1 exiles a creature until end of turn and gives it a +1/+1 counter when it returns (it can also target your opponent’s creatures and so can be used to remova an aura).
  • The 8 Sideboard tricks include 3 color hosers, 3 artifact/enchantment removal spells, 1 that kills flyers, 1 that hurts graveyard strategies.
  • The 7 Other tricks include 3 counterspells (this does not include Flashfreeze, Cryptic Command, and Mystic Snake, which are counted in other categories), 3 card draw/recoup spells, and 1 lifegain spell.

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MM2: List of instant-speed tricks

May 16, 2015 Leave a comment

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in Modern Masters 2015. The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does. Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell and often leaves out certain details. Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables; please let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity. Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell has one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost listed has a mana cost of 2W. I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost, is multicolored, or costs more than the column it is specified in. Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return to owner’s hand), bury (destroy & it cannot be regenerated), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), ETB (enters the battlefield), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), GY (graveyard), I (instant), L (land), loot X (draw X cards, then discard X cards), lose X (lose X life), mill (put cards from a library into a graveyard), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), raise (return card from your graveyard to your hand), reanimate (return card from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent or player unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., Revealing Wind is described as “Fog; look at face-down attkrs/blkrs”.

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MM2: Compact FAQ

May 14, 2015 Leave a comment

This is a compact version of the Modern Masters 2015 FAQ (15 pages vs. 37 pages for the original).

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MM2: Compact spoiler

May 12, 2015 1 Comment

This is a 9-page version of the full Modern Masters 2015 spoiler. The card image gallery at DailyMTG is 64 pages so I’m hoping this saves a couple of trees. This spoiler is also text instead of images, so it’s easier to search for card types or keywords before the set is available on Gatherer, and it’s also easier to carry around in your pocket for reference.

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DTK/FRF: Dragons

April 30, 2015 Leave a comment

Dragons of Tarkir has more Dragons than most sets. But does it have enough to merit drafting either Dragon Tempest or Dragonlord’s Servant? And do the tribal abilities on some of the Dragons in the set affect their value? Probably not, but let’s double check.

All the Dragons in Dragons of Tarkir and Fate Reforged are either monocolor or in an allied color pair.

  • Common: Fate Reforged has Lightning Shrieker, which is usually only played as a Lava Axe in very aggressive decks.
  • Uncommon: Dragons of Tarkir has a cycle of monocolored 3/3 Dragons for 5C (they can also be played face down and have a megamorph cost of 5CC), and a cycle of 4/4 allied color Dragons that costs 4CD. There’s the colorless Scion of Ugin, which rarely sees play but might be playable in a Dragons tribal deck. And Fate Reforged has a cycle of monocolored 4/4 Dragons for 4CC.
  • Rare: Dragons of Tarkir has a cycle of monocolored Dragons, and another cycle of allied color Dragons. Fate Reforged has a cycle of allied color legendary Dragons.
  • Mythic: Dragons of Tarkir has the allied color Elder Dragon cycle.

If we exclude the mostly unplayable Lightning Shrieker, all colors have access to the same number of Dragons as each other, and all allied color pairs have access to the same number of Dragons as each other. There are an average of 0.9 allied color Dragons in each allied color pair, 1.6 monocolored Dragons in each color, and 0.6 Scions of Ugin in an 8-person draft. Consequently, a monocolor deck has access to 2.2 Dragons, an enemy color deck has access to 3.8 Dragons, and an allied color deck has access to 4.7 Dragons. However, you’re unlikely to be passed a mythic or rare Dragon in the first pack of Dragons of Tarkir, and even the uncommon allied color Dragons won’t make it very far, so in practice you’re unlikely to see more than 2-3 Dragons in your colors if you draft an allied color deck.

That’s enough to make it worth playing Dragonlord’s Servant in a slower R/X deck (U/R control or R/G ramp), since it’s still a 1/3 for 2 mana and so can also help you survive until you can start casting Dragons. However, it’s difficult to justify playing Dragon Tempest if you only have 2-3 Dragons, so you probably shouldn’t bother drafting it, even on the wheel. And the Dragon tribal effects will rarely be relevant, so you don’t want to value those cards any higher than usual.

Are any of these cards more valuable in a 3+ color deck? A 3-color shard deck has access to an average of 7.2 Dragons, a 4-color deck has access to an average of 9.7 Dragons, and a 5-color deck has access to all 13 Dragons in a typical 8-person draft. Most decks wouldn’t want to run more than a few, but you’re drafting a 3+ color control deck that runs red, Dragonlord’s Servant should go up in your pick order. However, so much needs to go right for Dragon Tempest to be even somewhat decent that you’re still better off passing under most circumstances.

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