OGW: Colorless mana sources
March 17, 2016 Leave a comment
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/ahead-of-the-curve-colorless-mana-sources-in-ogw-draft examines the colorless mana sources available in OGW/OGW/BFZ draft.
Magic: The Gathering number crunching for limited
March 17, 2016 Leave a comment
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/ahead-of-the-curve-colorless-mana-sources-in-ogw-draft examines the colorless mana sources available in OGW/OGW/BFZ draft.
May 30, 2015 1 Comment
A lot of good players like to play as many bounce lands as they can get their hands on, but doing so also increases the risk of having to mulligan hands where your only lands are bounce lands. It may seem unlikely, but it happened to me thrice in my first 8 matches of Modern Masters 2015. (I had 3-4 bounce lands in each of those decks.) Was I just unlucky? Let’s try to quantify the risk.
An 8-person draft has about 1 copy of any given uncommon on average and there are 10 bounce lands, all at uncommon, so the typical draft will have about 10 bounce lands. This is only about 1.25 per player, but for our analysis we’ll consider decks with up to 10 bounce lands. We’ll also assume 40-card decks with 17-18 lands and where each bounceland replaces about 1.5 lands. I’m also going to ignore the case where you only have 1 bounceland and no other lands, since you wouldn’t usually keep a hand with only 1 land in most Limited games, but the risk of this does increase slightly since you’re running fewer lands in the deck.
# bounce lands | # other lands | P(2+ bounce lands & no other lands |
2 | 15 | 0.07% |
2 | 14 | 0.09% |
3 | 14 | 0.26% |
3 | 13 | 0.35% |
3 | 12 | 0.47% |
4 | 12 | 0.85% |
4 | 11 | 1.12% |
5 | 11 | 1.71% |
5 | 10 | 2.23% |
5 | 9 | 2.88% |
6 | 9 | 3.93% |
6 | 8 | 5.03% |
7 | 8 | 6.41% |
7 | 7 | 8.13% |
7 | 6 | 10.24% |
8 | 6 | 12.43% |
8 | 5 | 15.53% |
9 | 5 | 18.16% |
9 | 4 | 22.55% |
9 | 3 | 27.81% |
10 | 3 | 31.60% |
10 | 2 | 38.74% |
With 3 bounce lands and 14 other lands, the probability of all the lands you draw being bounce lands is only 0.26%, and with 4 bounce lands and 12 other lands, the probability only goes up to 0.85%, so the risk isn’t as high as it seemed from my small sample size. As long as you have fewer than 6 bounce lands, the probability is less than 3%, which is well worth the virtual card advantage of drawing a bounce land, and the greater density of spells in your deck. The risk involved with running 6+ bounce lands might still be worthwhile if you compare it to the lowered probability of getting stuck at 2-3 mana sources, the increased mana you have available for multikicker/X spells, and the ease of splashing cards from other colors and maximizing sunburst cards. But it’s always better to enter such situations with a good understanding the risks involved.
October 14, 2014 Leave a comment
As a follow-up to last week’s post, let’s take a look at what manafixing players ran in the top 8 of GP Orlando. (Dual lands include both the common lands that enter the battlefield tapped and the rare fetchlands.)
Maindeck | ||||||||
Rank | Player | Colors | # Lands | # Nonbasic Lands | # Lands Only Making Generic Mana | # Dual Lands | # Tri-Lands (3/2 color match) | # Banners (3/2 color match) |
1st | Eugene Hwang | Mardu (B/W/R) | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1/0 | 0/0 |
2nd | Melissa DeTora | Temur (R/U/G) | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0/0 | 2/0 |
3rd | Sol Malka | G/B/w/u | 17 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
4th | Artur Villela | G/W | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
5th-8th | Harry Corvese | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1/0 | 0/0 |
5th-8th | Ian Farnung | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
5th-8th | Pierre Mondon | Mardu (B/W/R) | 17 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0/0 | 2/0 |
5th-8th | Frank Lepore | Abzan (G/B/W) | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Sideboard | |||||||
Rank | Player | Colors | # Nonbasic Lands | # Lands Only Making Generic Mana | # Dual Lands | # Tri-Lands (3/2/1/0 color match) | # Banners (3/2/1/0 color match) |
1st | Eugene Hwang | Mardu (B/W/R) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/0 | 1/1/0/0 |
2nd | Melissa DeTora | Temur (R/U/G) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/1/0/0 |
3rd | Sol Malka | G/B/w/u | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/0/0/0 |
4th | Artur Villela | G/W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0/1/0 |
5th-8th | Harry Corvese | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0/1/0 |
5th-8th | Ian Farnung | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/0/0/0 |
5th-8th | Pierre Mondon | Mardu (B/W/R) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/1/1/0 |
5th-8th | Frank Lepore | Abzan (G/B/W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/0/0/0 |
Rank | Player | Colors | # Multicolor Cards (2/3 color) | # Cards in Each Color | # Colored Mana Symbols in Each Color | # Lands/ Banners Making Each Color | Other Manafixing |
1st | Eugene Hwang | Mardu (B/W/R) | 1/4 | 11/5/15 | 12/5/18 | 7/6/8 | |
2nd | Melissa DeTora | Temur (R/U/G) | 1/6 | 5/13/14 | 6/14/16 | 6/9/10 | Embodiment of Spring |
3rd | Sol Malka | G/B/w/u | 2/1 | 9/16/1/1 | 9/16/1/1 | 7/11/3/3 | 2x Scout the Border |
4th | Artur Villela | G/W | 0/0 | 14/8 | 14/8 | 10/8 | |
5th-8th | Harry Corvese | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 1/3 | 8/9/13 | 8/10/13 | 6/7/8 | Sideboard: Scout the Borders |
5th-8th | Ian Farnung | Jeskai (W/R/U) | 0/2 | 9/4/13 | 9/4/15 | 7/4/9 | |
5th-8th | Pierre Mondon | Mardu (B/W/R) | 0/3 | 8/7/12 | 9/7/14 | 7/10/10 | |
5th-8th | Frank Lepore | Abzan (G/B/W) | 1/3 | 8/11/14 | 8/12/14 | 6/7/7 | Sideboard: Seek the Horizon |
Observations:
October 7, 2014 Leave a comment
Khans of Tarkir has more multicolor lands than most Limited environments. In a recent draft, I was in Sultai (U/G/B) and was taking manafixing relatively high once I’d determined my colors. By the end of the second pack, I had 7 multicolor lands that were in color (Polluted Delta, 2 Dismal Backwater, 2 Thornwood Falls, Opulent Palace, Sandsteppe Citadel) as well as 2 more that were not useful, so in the final pack I passed a few in-color dual lands for creatures and sideboard cards. (Admittedly, this was a very casual draft and it might have been more difficult to get quite as many multicolor lands in a more competitive draft.)
One thing that people sometimes miss is that the format has 10 dual lands and 5 tricolor Banners at common. Let’s enumerate the manafixing available in the format, by rarity:
Using the expected number of cards at each rarity, we can determine that there are an average of 49 manafixing effects in an 8-person draft, or about 6 per player, so there’re plenty of manafixing effects and the difficulty is ensuring that you end up with ones that are useful for your deck.
Many of these manafixing effects are not useful unless you’re in a color combination that uses 2+ of the colors provided by the effect. Let’s take a look at how many effects are useful if you’re in a given color combination. (Dual lands are also counted in each of the wedges where they would be useful. Wedge lands are also counted in each of the 3 color pairs in which they would be useful, but wedge Banners are only counted for their wedge since they’re much less appealing if you can’t crack them for a card in the late game.)
Color combination | Commons | Uncommons | Rares | Expected number of manafixing effects |
W/U | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6.1 |
U/B | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6.1 |
B/R | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6.1 |
R/G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9.8 |
G/W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9.4 |
W/B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 |
U/R | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11.8 |
B/G | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9.9 |
R/W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 |
G/U | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15.1 |
W/R/U | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13.1 |
U/G/B | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.8 |
B/W/R | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12.7 |
R/U/G | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.8 |
G/B/W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16.0 |
Unsurprisingly, wedge decks have access to the most amount of manafixing (an average of 16 effects), since wedge C/E/D can make use of the dual lands for C/D, C/E, and D/E as well as the Banners, all of which are commons. Enemy color decks have access to the next most amount of manafixing (an average of 11 effects) since each can make use 2 of the wedge trilands whereas allied color decks (which have access to an average of 7.5 manafixing effects) only have access to 1 triland each.
Compare that to the number of multicolor cards in Khans of Tarkir. There are fewer than you might expect in a typical draft, since most of the multicolor cards in the set are uncommmon or rare. Of the 56 multicolor cards in the set, 6 are mythic, 25 are rare, 20 are uncommon, and only 5 are common, so an 8-person draft will only have an average of 41 multicolor cards, just 12% of the 336 cards in the draft. Note that this does not count cards with activated abilities in other colors and, of course, manafixing can be useful even when you only have monocolored cards from 2+ colors.
From this, it appears that it is relatively easy to draft enough manafixing in this format regardless of the colors we’re running, and so perhaps we don’t need to prioritize it as much as in previous multicolor formats. If you wait until later in the draft to pick up manafixing, you’re less likely to waste picks on off-color manafixing. However, other drafters are also more likely to be looking for manafixing at that point, so you may need to pick manafixing more highly. One possible compromise is to pick the wedge tri-lands early since each of them is useful for 3 of the wedges, 2 of the enemy color pairs, and 1 allied color pair.
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