THS: Memorizing the instant-speed tricks

November 18, 2013 Leave a comment

Most of the analysis I do here is focused on draft. However, we have a Sealed deck PTQ in Seattle this weekend, so I will use this week to focus on preparing for Sealed deck tournaments. I will try to write a post each day this week.

There are 4 important ways I prepare for Sealed PTQs:

  1. Build Sealed decks from pools, either by opening packs, using sites like tappedout.net to generate Sealed pools, or finding articles online that have Sealed pools. Opening packs has the advantage that you get practice with actual physical cards. You also get to practice building a deck under time constraints, and it’s easy to take the deck with you so you can play against other people and solicit opinions on your build. Using an online Sealed deck generator also lets you practice building a deck under time constraints. Many of these sites are free and allow you to play against opponents online, so it’s easier to get experience playing the deck, but it’s a bit more difficult to ask for opinions on your build. Articles have the advantage that they are often accompanied by the deck the author built from the pool, some commentary on the choices made, and how that build performed in an actual event.
  2. Play with the deck you build. This allows you to develop a sense of whether the format is fast or slow, so you can build decks accordingly and consider whether you might want to play first instead of drawing first as in most Sealed formats. You might even develop a sense of the Sealed metagame, e.g., most Scars of Mirrodin Sealed decks were R/W, so you could often maindeck cards that were particularly strong against those colors.
  3. Memorize the list of tricks (instants and creatures with flash) in the format.
  4. Figure out whether any cards that might be considered sideboard cards in a different format are playable maindeck in this format.

While #1 and #2 are very important, there are plenty of sites offering Sealed pools and analysis of possible builds. Moreover, nothing is a substitute for actually getting some experience building/playing some Sealed decks yourself. So I will focus on #3 today and #4 later this week.

2 months ago, I’d posted a list of the tricks in the set. What’s the best way to memorize this list and recall them quickly (since we don’t have the luxury of infinite time during a tournament)? I always start by making sure I know the number of tricks per color: white has 6, blue has 10, black has 7, red has 6, green has 7, and there are 3 multicolor tricks. If you ignore blue and multicolor, the rest have a pattern of 6, 7, 6, and 7, so the totals are easy enough to remember. Part of the reason it is useful to know the total number of tricks in each color is that it allow me to verify whether I’ve considered all the possibilities in certain crucial game states. When practising my recall of the tricks, it also allows me to easily determine whether I remembered all the tricks in a given color. If I didn’t, I refer to a printout I carry of the list of tricks. Doing this regularly helps me increase the speed with which I can recall the tricks available given the mana my opponent has open.

Another thing I do to help my recall of the tricks is to categorize them into 5 categories: creature removal (including bounce), non-creature removal, combat tricks, countermagic, and other (usually card draw). Removal that kills both creatures and non-creatures gets classified as creature removal since creatures are usually the most important permanents in limited formats. Combat tricks are spells that you should be aware of when entering combat, e.g., pump spells and other enhancers, spells that let you temporarily neutralize opposing creatures (tap, reduce power, Fog), and flash creatures. Here’s what available in each color:

  • White has 6: 1 creature removal spell (Last Breath), 1 non-creature removal spell (Ray of Dissolution), and 4 combat tricks (Gods Willing, Battlewise Valor, Dauntless Onslaught, and Divine Verdict, sorted from low to high converted mana cost, irrespective of rarity).
  • Blue has 10: 2 creature removal spells (Voyage’s End and Griptide), 3 combat tricks (Lost in a Labyrinth, Triton Tactics, and Breaching Hippocamp), and 5 countermagic (Annul, Swan Song, Stymied Hopes, Gainsay, and Dissolve).
  • Black has 7: 4 creature removal spells (Dark Betrayal, Pharika’s Cure, Hero’s Downfall, and Lash of the Whip) and 3 combat tricks (Boon of Erebos, Cutthroat Maneuver, and Rescue from the Underworld).
  • Red has 6: 4 creature removal spells (Spark Jolt – 1 damage, Magma Jet – 2 damage, Lightning Strike – 3 damage, and Boulderfall – 5 damage) and 2 combat tricks (Titan’s Strength and Coordinated Assault).
  • Green has 7: 1 creature removal spell (Shredding Winds), 1 non-creature removal spell (Artisan’s Sorrow), and 5 combat tricks (Warriors’ Lesson, Savage Surge, Defend the Hearth, Feral Invocation, and Boon Satyr).
  • Multicolor has 3: 1 non-creature removal (Destructive Revelry), 1 combat trick (Horizon Chimera), and 1 other (Steam Augury). Note also that the multicolor tricks all involve blue, red, or green. In fact, each of the 3 combinations (UR, RG, and GU) is represented once in the multicolor tricks.

Note that both white and green have 1 creature removal spell and 1 non-creature removal spell, with the rest being combat tricks. Black and red have 4 removal spells each, with the rest being combat tricks. Most pump in the set is +2/+2 (Battlewise Valor, Dauntless Onslaught, Savage Surge, Feral Invocation). Boon of Erebos also increases power by 2, but regenerates the creature instead of increasing its toughness. 4 of these 5 are common, while Dauntless Onslaught is uncommon. Cutthroat Maneuver and Coordinated Assault, both part of the previously mentioned cycle of uncommons, increase power by 1. Titan’s Strength is +3/+1, and the rare Boon Satyr’s bestow ability grants +4/+2.

One thing you’ve likely noticed that can help you remember some of the tricks is that each color in Theros has a combat trick at uncommon that affects 2 creature: Dauntless Onslaught, Triton Tactics, Cutthroat Maneuver, Coordinated Assault, and Warriors’ Lesson. In addition to paying attention to cycles, it can also help to think about what effects each color usually has access to, since most sets include variants on a number of staples. For instance:

  • White usually has some creature removal, enchantment removal, and pump spells. It also usually has a spell like Divine Verdict that only affects attacking and/or blocking creatures, and a spell like Gods Willing that gives a creature protection from a color.
  • Blue usually has access to bounce, neutralizing spells, flash creatures, countermagic, and card draw.
  • Black usually has removal and some tricks.
  • Red usually has removal and some pump effects, most of which enhance power and grant first strike in leiu of enhancing toughness. Red also usually has instant-speed artifact removal and a rare effect like Shunt, but neither of these are present in Theros.
  • Green usually has flyer removal, artifact and/or enchantment removal, a couple of pump spells (one of which usually offers a permanent pump, usually in the form of +1/+1 counters, but in the form of a +2/+2 enchantment this time), flash creatures, and a Fog variant.
  • Multicolor spells offer effects that are available to either color, but tend to prefer effects that are available to both colors.

Next, let’s look at the mana curves and rarities of the tricks:

  • White’s has 1 trick that costs 1 mana, 2 tricks that cost 2 mana, 2 tricks that cost 3 mana, and 1 trick that costs 4 mana. I’ll abbreviate this here as 1/2/2/1. Because of white’s distribution of tricks across rarities, white will have 13.1 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Blue has 4/3/1/2, with 18.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft (10.7 if you exclude counterspells).
  • Black has 2/1/1/1/2, with 12.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Red has 3/2/0/0/1 (the last one actually costs 8 mana, not 5, but this pattern is easier to remember and there aren’t very many 8-mana tricks), with 11.9 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Green has 1/2/3/1/(1) (the (1) refers to Boon Satyr’s bestow ability), with 12.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft.

From this we can tell that blue has the most tricks if you include counterspells. If you exclude counterspells, all the colors have access to roughly the same number of tricks. Blue and red also have the most number of tricks that cost 2 mana or less.

I hope these strategies help you memorize the tricks in Theros, and that this helps you do well at the tournament.

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THS: Combat damage triggers

November 12, 2013 Leave a comment

I drafted a fairly weak W/U deck last week. It had a couple of heroic creatures, 3 Fate Foretold*, and 2 Thassa’s Emissary. Once I picked up the second Emissary, I started keeping an eye out for cards that could grant them evasion. I drafted a Nimbus Naiad, took a Sea God’s Revenge over an Aqueous Form, and then didn’t see any other cards that would have allowed the Emissaries to get through.

Theros also has several other cards that have combat damage triggers, such as Daxos of Meletis (which I’ve been passed multiple times previously, but unfortunately not this time). In order to better understand how likely it is that I can make these abilities trigger, I decided to make a spreadsheet of all the cards in Theros with such triggers, all the cards that grant evasion, and also all the cards that have evasion (since Bident of Thassa and Warriors’ Lesson let you draw a card if any creatures get through), sorted by color and rarity. Here are some notes on interpreting this spreadsheet:

  • In the Combat Damage Triggers column, italics mean the card doesn’t actually have a combat damage trigger, but has the potential to do a lot of damage if it get through, usually due to Firebreathing or double strike. I have not listed creatures with monstrous, mostly because they’re too many of them and they would dominate the list. Yellow highlight means that the effect can trigger multiple times if 2+ creatures get through.
  • In the Grants Evasion column (which also includes cards that prevent an opponent’s creature(s) from blocking), italics mean that the card grants evasion as a one-time effect. This includes cards like Arena Athlete that can be triggered multiple times, but require a spell to target them for each use. Yellow highlight means that the effect grants evasion to 2+ creature.
  • In the Has Evasion column, italics mean that the creature has a form of evasion other than flying, e.g., intimidate. I have not listed effects that grant trample because it is not a reliable way to trigger these abilities. Yellow highlight means the card gives you 2+ creature with evasion.
  • Red text means that the card appears in more than one column, e.g., Nimbus Naiad has evasion but can also grant evasion to other creatures if played as an Aura.

From the spreadsheet, we can see that blue has the most cards with combat damage triggers: Thassa’s Emissary (uncommon) and Bident of Thassa (rare), as well as the multicolor cards Daxos of Meletis (W/U rare) and Medomai the Ageless (W/U mythic). Red has most of the italicized cards in this column: Dragon Mantle (common), Two-Headed Cerberus (common), and Firedrinker Satyr (rare), as well as the multicolor cards Akroan Hoplite (R/W uncommon) and Polis Crusher (R/G rare with an actual combat damage trigger).

Looking at the next column, white has 2 cards that grant evasion permanently + 1 that grants evasion temporarily (sort of; it only taps one creature). Blue has 3 + 1, black has 0 + 1, red has 1 + 2, green and multicolor have none, and there are 2 + 0 artifacts that grant evasion**. So blue also has the most number of ways to give creatures evasion.

Finally, white has 3 commons + 1 uncommon + 1 rare with evasion (8.7 in an average 8-person draft), blue has 4 + 1 + 1 (11.1), black has 2 + 1 + 1 (6.3), red has 1 uncommon and 1 mythic (1.4), green has 1 common (2.4), and there are 0 + 4 + 1 + 3 (5.8) multicolor cards with evasion and 1 uncommon artifact. Once again, blue leads the pack, but it followed very closely by white.

If you are trying to build around some cards with combat damage triggers but aren’t able to draft a monoblue deck, what is the best color to pair it with? Red seems like it would go well in this deck since it provides a few ways to give creatures evasion, multiple removal spells that allow creatures to get through, as well some creatures that can get through for a lot of damage if unblocked. In particular, Nimbus Naiad on a Two-Headed Cerberus can make short work of an opponent. And you can splash green for Warriors’ Lesson, Polis Crusher, Horizon Chimera, and perhaps Agent of Horizons.

The other possibility is W/U, either a flyers deck or a heroic deck. Since the deck runs several creatures with evasion anyway and has ways to give more creatures evasion, killing your opponent with flyers is a great plan B (or even plan A) for this deck. A heroic deck also has potential since some of the effects that grant evasion also trigger heroic. White also gives you access to Daxos of Meletis and has Gods Willing to protect your creatures once they have been given evasion or a combat damage trigger. As above, you can also splash green for Warriors’ Lesson, Horizon Chimera, and perhaps Agent of Horizons.

* This was my first time playing Fate Foretold and I was not impressed. However, that may have been because I only had a couple of heroic creatures and/or because I played against a lot of blue decks with bounce + Griptides.

** Note that Theros has only 1 Wall, so Prowler’s Helm essentially makes your creature unblockable. It’s very similar to Fleetfeather Sandals, except that it gives up haste in exchange for a near guarantee that the creature will be unblockable.

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THS: Follow-up on Minotaurs

November 12, 2013 Leave a comment

I managed to pull off a Minotaurs deck in a recent draft. I was already in red and was passed a Kragma Warcaller pack 1, pick 4 (the other good card in that pack was Wingsteed Rider). I committed myself to a Minotaurs deck shortly thereafter and was rewarded with another Kragma Warcaller in pack 3. My deck also had 6 other Minotaurs: 3 Fellhide Minotaur, 2 Minotaur Skullcleaver, and 1 Borderland Minotaur.

The supporting cast included some aggressive early drops (Tormented Hero, Firedrinker Satyr, Akroan Crusader, Arena Athlete, Blood-Toll Harpy), some removal (2 Lightning Strike, 2 Ordeal of Purphoros, 2 Lash of the Whip), and some finishers (Portent of Betrayal, Ember Swallower, Cavern Lampad). The pair of Kragma Warcallers were the lynchpins of the deck and even led to a U/G opponent scooping immediately when the second one hit the table (he had no way to deal with them permanently).

The main thing the deck lacked was 2-drops. In particular, I would have loved to pick up a couple of Deathbellow Raiders, but I never saw one. Also, Fanatic of Mogis would have been a great finisher for this deck, but I managed to go undefeated even without it.

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THS: Chronicler of Heroes

November 5, 2013 Leave a comment

In a recent draft, I took 2 Chroniclers of Heroes early in pack 1, thinking I’d be able to build around them and that they would still be servicable as 3/3’s for 3 mana even if I weren’t able to draft creatures with +1/+1 counters. However, I don’t recall seeing many creatures with +1/+1 counters in that draft, and the ones I did see were rather expensive, making it unlikely that I would be able to play Chronicler of Heroes early and draw a card off it. Does Theros have enough early creatures with +1/+1 counters that there’s a reasonable chance of playing Chronicler of Heroes early and still drawing a card off it? Let’s find out.

Theros has 31 cards that can cause themselves or a creature to get +1/+1 counters. They can be broken down into 4 categories:

  • 16 creatures with monstrosity, concentrated in red and green: Hundred-Handed One (white rare), Sealock Monster (blue uncommon), Shipbreaker Kraken (blue rare), Hythonia the Cruel (black mythic), Keepsake Gorgon (black uncommon), Ember Swallower (red rare), Ill-Tempered Cyclops (red common), Stoneshock Giant (red uncommon), Stormbreath Dragon (red mythic), Arbor Colossus (green rare), Nemesis of Mortals (green uncommon), Nessian Asp (green common), Polukranos World Eater (green mythic), Fleecemane Lion (G/W rare), Polis Crusher (R/G rare), and Colossus of Akros (rare artifact).
  • 7 creatures whose heroic triggers add +1/+1 counters, largely in white and green: Fabled Hero (white rare), Favored Hoplite (white uncommon), Phalanx Leader (white uncommon), Wingsteed Rider (white common), Centaur Battlemaster (green uncommon), Staunch-Hearted Warrior (green common), and Battlewise Hoplite (W/U uncommon).
  • The cycle of Ordeals (commons), 1 in each color.
  • 3 green rares/mythics: Bow of Nylea (rare), Mistcutter Hydra (mythic), and Reverent Hunter (rare).

Looking at these cards, it seems that R/G and G/W are the colors with the most number of creatures with +1/+1 counters, so it seems like I should have been able to make the Chroniclers work. Eliminating the unplayables (the white/green Ordeals and Colossus of Akros), a G/W deck has access to 15 of these cards: 6 of the 16 creatures with monstrosity, 6 of the 7 creatures whose heroic triggers add +1/+1 counters, and all 3 cards in the last category. Of these, 3 are common, 4 are uncommon, 6 are rare, and 2 are mythic.

Now let’s take a look at when green and/or white creatures are likely to have +1/+1 counters so we can determine when Chronicler of Heroes is likely to draw us a card.

  • Commons: Nessian Asp (5 to cast + 7 to add counters), Wingsteed Rider (3 + spell that targets), and Staunch-Hearted Warrior (4 + spell that targets)
  • Uncommons: Nemesis of Mortals (2 to 6 + 2 to 8), Favored Hoplite (1 + spell that targets), Phalanx Leader (2 + spell that targets), and Centaur Battlemaster (5 + spell that targets).
  • Rare: Hundred-Handed One (4 + 6), Arbor Colossus (5 + 6), Fleecemane Lion (2 + 5), Fabled Hero (3 + spell that targets), Bow of Nylea (3 + 2 + creature), and Reverent Hunter (3).
  • Mythic: Polukranos World Eater (4 + 1, or 4 + 5), Mistcutter Hydra (2+, usually at least 4).

Monstrosity costs 5+ to activate (except for Polukranos World Eater and, possibly, Nemesis of Mortals), so those creatures are not going to allow you to draw a card off an early Chronicler. Moreoever, if you have a monstrous creature, it’s likely that you’re already winning the game and that an additional card and a 3/3 body won’t make much difference. Heroic is a better bet since there are commons available at 3 and 4 mana, uncommons at 1, 2, and 5 mana, and a rare at 3 mana, but it still requires you to cast an additional spell to trigger the Heroic effect. The remaining cards are rares and mythics; of these, Reverent Hunter can enable a turn 4 Chronicler that draws a card, and Bow of Nylea can enable the same on turn 5 (you can put the +1/+1 counter on the Chronicler itself if you have 5 mana). If you really need to draw a particular card, Mistcutter Hydra can enable a turn 3 Chronicler that draws a card, although you’ll usually want to wait until you can cast the Hydra as a 3/3 at least.

R/G is not a better option than G/W since it just replaces Hundred-Handed One, Fleecemane Lion, Fabled Hero, Favored Hoplite, Phalanx Leader, and Wingsteed Rider (1 common, 2 uncommons, and 3 rares) with Ember Swallower, Ill-Tempered Cyclops, Stoneshock Giant, Stormbreath Dragon, Polis Crusher, and the red Ordeal (2 commons, 1 uncommon, 2 rares, and 1 mythic). While there is one additional common, many of the red cards are creatures with monstrosity which, as discussed above, are not likely to yield creatures with +1/+1 counters in the early turns of a game. Going R/G also requires you to splash white for Chronicler.

So Chronicler of Heroes can be used in 2 kinds of decks. It can be used in a G/W or R/G/w deck with monstrous creatures, although you’re likely to already be winning the game if you have monstrous creatures in play, and an extra card and a 3/3 body are unlikely to have much impact on the game. Consequently, it is likely to be more effective in a G/W heroic deck.

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THS: The remaining tribal interactions

November 5, 2013 Leave a comment

Other than Minotaurs and Humans, there are only 2 tribal interactions in Theros, both quite minor.

Master of Waves, a mythic, gives Elementals +1/+1. However, there are only 2 Elementals in Theros (aside from those produced by Master of Waves himself):

  • Vaporkin, a blue common
  • Ember Swallower, a red rare

Both of them are very playable on their own merits, and Master of Waves is playable without either of them in your deck. Since neither of them have much impact on the playability of the other, this is not a tribal interaction you need to keep in mind when drafting triple Theros.

Hythonia the Cruel, also a mythic, kills all non-Gorgon creatures. Theros has 4 Gorgons:

  • Hythonia herself
  • Keepsake Gorgon, a black uncommon
  • Pharika’s Mender, a B/G uncommon
  • Reaper of the Wilds, a B/G rare

Hythonia is obviously very powerful if you’re able to hold the fort until you can make her monstrous. In the very unlikely case that you open or are passed a second copy, you will almost certainly draft it. All of the Gorgons are also quite playable on their own merits, and it is more likely that you will have a opportunity to draft one of them after you’ve drafted Hythonia. If you do, you should prioritize them a bit higher than you might otherwise since they do survive Hythonia’s monstrous trigger. Furthermore, all of them cost less than Hythonia and can buy you time to cast her and make her monstrous. If you have enough lands, you can play Keepsake Gorgon on turn 5, Hythonia on turn 6, make Keepsake Gorgon monstrous on turn 7, and make Hythonia monstrous on turn 8, allowing you to make use of your mana very efficiently. Pharika’s Mender also works quite well with Hythonia by buying you time to cast her, or allowing you to Regrow her if she is killed or countered. Finally, Reaper of the Wilds allows you to scry a bunch of times if you do make Hythonia monstrous with a few non-Gorgons in play between both players. However, as soon as you see a card you like enough, it stays on top of your library, so you don’t benefit from any remaining scry triggers.

(While Keepsake Gorgon’s monstrosity trigger is also technically a tribal effect, we won’t consider it here since the scenarios in which it would reward you for playing more Gorgons are extremely unlikely to occur in a triple Theros draft.)

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THS: Humans

October 29, 2013 Leave a comment

Other than Minotaurs, the other main tribal interaction in Theros is with Humans: Cavalry Pegasus gives Humans flying if they attack alongside it, and Titan of Eternal Fire gives Humans the ability the ability to tap to do 1 damage to a creature or player. Much of the value of these cards depends on how many Humans you have in your deck, so it helps to know whether Theros has enough playable Humans to make these cards worth taking early.

This spreadsheet lists all 33 Humans in Theros. White has about a third of these and a disproportionate number of the commons, so about 40% of the Humans in a typical draft will be white (this is not a commentary on the racial makeup of the Magic community :)). 1 of the white commons is unplayable and 2 are filler, but white does also have an exceptional Human at common (Wingsteed Rider, although it does not benefit from Cavalry Pegasus since it already flies). White also has 2 exceptional Humans at uncommon (Favored Hoplite and Phalanx Leader) so it will have 4.8 exceptional Humans in a typical 8-person draft, 4 times as many as any of the other colors, and none of which can be played as a splash by non-white players. If you don’t have Titan of Eternal Fire, Wingsteed Rider is not any better than a non-Human since it does not benefit from Cavalry Pegasus, but white will still have 2 times as many exceptional Humans as the other colors in a typical draft. Finally, all the multicolor Humans are also white except for Prophet of Kruphix: 2 are R/W, 2 are W/U, and 1 is W/B. This means that a Humans deck will need to run white as a main color rather than just splashing Cavalry Pegasus as a finisher.

Red and green are next with 5 Humans each, including 2 at common. The commons in both colors are playable, but red has an edge because it has 2 uncommon Humans instead of 1, provides access to 2 multicolor Humans, and has Titan of Eternal Fire. Black has 4 Humans, only 1 of which is a common, and that one is unplayable unless you’re drafting the black devotion deck. On the far end of the spectrum, blue has only 3 Humans, 2 of which are rare, although it does also have 2 of the multicolor Humans.

Let’s also look at Humans that particularly benefit from having the evasion that Cavalry Pegasus grants:

  • Daxos of Meletis (W/U rare): generates card advantage if it deals combat damage to an opponent
  • Favored Hoplite (white uncommon), Soldier of the Pantheon (white rare), and Tormented Hero (black uncommon): can enable aggressive starts with Cavalry Pegasus allowing you to keep up the pressure
  • Fabled Hero (white rare), Staunch-Hearted Warrior (green common), and Akroan Hoplite (R/W uncommon): these creatures can do a lot of damage if they are unblocked
  • Arena Athlete (red uncommon): can prevent opposing flyers/spiders from blocking your creatures

Looking at all of this information in concert, it appears that R/W is the best color for a Humans deck as it has both cards that interact with Humans, the most number of playable Humans, and the most Humans that benefit from the evasion granted by Cavalry Pegasus.

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THS: Minotaurs

October 22, 2013 Leave a comment

Theros is unusual in having 2 lords for a single tribe: Rageblood Shaman and Kragma Warcaller. How good are they in triple Theros drafts? Let’s figure it out.

Theros has 7 Minotaurs, including the 2 lords. There are 4 commons, 2 uncommons, and 1 rare, so the average 8-person draft will have 12.3 Minotaurs, including 1.6 Minotaur lords. The Minotaurs are listed below, along with my prior evaluation of them:

  • Common: Deathbellow Raider (2cc, good), Minotaur Skullcleaver (3cc, filler/conditional), Fellhide Minotaur (3cc, filler/conditional), Borderland Minotaur (4cc, good)
  • Uncommon: Fanatic of Mogis (4cc, exceptional), Kragma Warcaller (5cc, TBD)
  • Rare: Rageblood Shaman (3cc, TBD)

The Minotaurs are spread reasonably well across the mana curve, which is good. All are in either red or black. While the black Minotaur is not particularly strong, Kragma Warcaller is, and Deathbellow Raider requires black mana for regeneration, so a Minotaur deck is likely to be R/B or R/b (red splashing black).

Many of the Minotaurs are playable on their own merits, even without a lord: Borderland Minotaur, Fanatic of Mogis, and Kragma Warcaller. Deathbellow Raider and Minotaur Skullcleaver are also playable in a sufficiently aggressive red deck. Other than Fanatic of Mogis, however, none of these cards are likely to be taken highly by non-Minotaur players. So it is likely that a player drafting Minotaurs can expect to pick up about 8 Minotaurs over the course of the draft if no one else is drafting the same deck. (I say 8 instead of 12 because some Minotaurs will get drafted by other players, because you will have to pass Minotaurs for removal, and because Fellhide Minotaur isn’t worth playing unless you have multiple Minotaur lords.)

What does this mean for the playability of the Minotaur lords? Kragma Warcaller is good on its own merits as a 4/3 haste creature for 5 manas, so it’s worth drafting highly if you’re in those colors, even if you don’t have many Minotaurs. Rageblood Shaman is more conditional, but is very playable in a deck with about 8 Minotaurs, so it is a reasonable early pick that you can try to craft a deck around.

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THS: The heroic deck

October 15, 2013 Leave a comment

Theros has 18 creatures with the heroic keyword, but how good are they? I did an initial evaluation of them, along with all other cards in Theros, in a recent post, but their valuation also depends to an extent on the number of targeting spells available in Theros. In particular, it depends on the number of beneficial targeting spells, i.e., targeting spells that you would like (or at least not mind) casting on your own creatures. In turn, the value of those spells also depends, on an extent, to how many good creatures with heroic are available in Theros.

Let’s start by looking at the creatures with heroic. Blue, red, and green each have a common, an uncommon, and a rare creature with heroic, so they will each have 4 creatures with heroic in an average draft. Black has only an uncommon and a rare with heroic and so will have only 1.6 creatures with heroic on average, and white has 2 commons, 2 uncommons, and a rare and so will have 7.5 creatures with heroic on average. A color is typically shared by 3 drafters at a table, so even a W/X deck will only usually have 4 creatures with heroic, so it does not make sense to try to pick up good beneficial targeting spells in anticipation of being passed good creatures with heroic.

This is especially true since many of the heroic creatures are playable even with few or no beneficial targeting spells in a deck. However, there are some exceptions:

  • White: Favored Hoplite (uncommon), Phalanx Leader (uncommon)
  • Blue: Triton Fortune Hunter (uncommon), Artisan of Forms (rare)
  • Red: Akroan Crusader (common), Labyrinth Chamption (rare)
  • Green: Staunch-Hearted Warrior (common), Centaur Battlemaster (uncommon)

So while white has the most number of heroic creatures, it is green and (to a lesser extent) red whose heroic creatures need to be accompanied by beneficial targeting spells in order to really shine.

Next, let’s take a look at which colors have the best beneficial targeting spells. This spreadsheet lists all the beneficial targeting spells available in Theros, including all instants, sorceries, enchant creatures, and enchantment creatures with bestow that help your creatures. The table on the left summarizes them by color, rarity, and quality, and the total row for each color computes the number of cards of that color and quality that you’re likely to see in an 8-person draft.

Looking at the total column, we see that white has the most number of beneficial targeting spells at 16, followed by black and red at 13, and then blue and green at 11. However, quality is more important than raw numbers, so let’s only look at spells that are playable (/) or better. It turns out that most colors have about 10 beneficial targeting spells in an average draft, while black has only about 6. Consequently, the average 8-person draft will have 46 such spells, or about 6 per player. (It is worth noting here that blue has more exceptional targeting spells than the other colors.)

This means that red and green decks will usually have access to enough good beneficial targeting spells that you can draft good heroic cards and expect to pick up some beneficial targeting spells later. However, most heroic decks are likely to be W/X since white has the most number of heroic creatures and the most number of beneficial targeting spells in Theros.

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THS: The devotion deck

October 8, 2013 Leave a comment

Let’s use the evaluations from my last post to try to get a sense of how good the various cards with the devotion mechanic are. Let’s start by looking at the cards that depend on devotion in each color:

  • White (2 total): 1 uncommon (Evangel of Heliod/2 colored mana symbols), 1 mythic (Heliod God of the Sun/1)
  • Blue (2): 2 mythics (Master of Waves/1, Thassa God of the Sea/1)
  • Black (5): 2 commons (Disciple of Phenax/2, Gray Merchant of Asphodel/2), 1 uncommon (Mogis’s Marauder/1), 1 rare (Abhorrent Overlord/2), 1 mythic (Erebos God of the Dead/1)
  • Red (2): 1 uncommon (Fanatic of Mogis/1), 1 mythic (Purphoros God of the Forge/1)
  • Green (4): 1 common (Nylea’s Disciple/2), 1 uncommon (Karametra’s Acolyte/1, which I no longer think is unplayable since it can enable early monstrous creatures), 1 rare (Reverent Hunter/1), 1 mythic (Nylea God of the Hunt/1)

From this, it appears that black and green are the only colors with a potential devotion deck. However, green’s devotion cards are playable even if you don’t have a lot of green mana symbols in play, so black is really where we want to focus our efforts.

Next, let’s examine the number of colored mana symbols in permanents by color and rarity. White has slightly more colored mana symbols among its common permanents, but only by a very narrow margin (14 vs. 13 for blue/black/green and 12 for red). However, when you look at the average number of colored mana symbols among permanents in a draft, white comes out well ahead with 43.65 vs. 41.25 for green in second place.

Let’s also look at the number of permanents in each color that contribute more than one colored mana symbol.

  • White: 2 commons, 2 uncommons, 4 rares, and 1 mythic = 9 cards in an average 8-person draft have 2 or more colored mana symbols
  • Blue: 1 common, 1 uncommon, 3 rares = 4.75
  • Black: 2 commons, 2 uncommons, 4 rares, and 1 mythic = 9
  • Red: 3 commons, 1 uncommons, 3 rares, and 1 mythic = 9.75
  • Green: 2 commons, 2 uncommons, 4 rares (one of which has 3 colored mana symbols), and 1 mythic = 9

So it’d be more difficult to have a blue deck with a lot of colored mana symbols, but it doesn’t matter since blue has only 2 cards with the devotion mechanic, and they’re both mythic anyway.

Now let’s take a closer look at the quality of the cards with more than 1 colored mana symbol:

  • White: Among commons, Silent Artisan is unplayable but Wingsteed Rider is exceptional. Among uncommons, Phalanx Leader is exceptional and Evangel of Heliod is TBD. The 4 rares and the mythic are all bombs except Hundred-Handed One which is merely exceptional.
  • Blue: Prescient Chimera (common) and Sealock Monster (uncommon) are both playable. Among the rares, Shipbreaker Kraken is exceptional and the other 2 are bombs.
  • Black: Among commons, Gray Merchant of Asphodel is TBD and Disciple of Phenax is unplayable unless you have several Gray Merchants of Asphodel and need to increase your devotion to black. Among uncommons, Insatiable Harpy is playable and Keepsake Gorgon is exceptional. Among rares, Nighthowler is TBD, Whip of Erebos is exceptional, and the other 2 rares and the mythic are bombs.
  • Red: Among commons, Two-Headed Cerberus is conditional/filler and Borderland Minotaur and Wild Celebrants are playable but on the expensive side for a red deck which might want only a couple of cards at that point on its mana curve. Stoneshock Giant (uncommon) is also playable but also at the top end of many R/X deck’s curves. Among rares, Rageblood Shaman is TBD and the other 2 are exceptional. Stormbreath Dragon (mythic) is obviously a bomb.
  • Green: Both commons are playable. Among the uncommons, Centaur Battlemaster is playable and Nemesis of Mortals is exceptional. 2 of the rares (Arbor Colossus, which has 3 colored mana symbols, and Boon Satyr) are exceptional and the other 2 are bombs as is the lone mythic.

So each color has roughly 1 playable common and 2 playable uncommons with 2+ colored mana symbols. Green does have an additional playable common and also has 4 devotion cards, so it should be easier to trigger devotion effects in that color. Red has the most number of commons with 2+ colored mana symbols but probably can’t afford to run more than a couple of them, especially since it has only 2 devotion effects. Evangel of Heliod is probably quite good, especially in conjunction with Phalanx Leader, but also in any W/X Skies deck since the 1/1s can hold the ground against monstrous/bestowed creatures. A typical 8-person draft will have only 2.4 copies of Gray Merchant of Asphodel, so we can’t really plan to build a deck around it, but black has a reasonable number of permanents with BB in the casting cost so Gray Merchant of Asphodel should be quite good, especially if you’re willing to run Disciple of Phenax to power them up. Blue has few devotion effects (which makes sense from a flavor standpoint too), so there’s no need to try to load up on permanents with UU in their casting cost, even if you’ve already drafted either of the blue mythics that look at devotion.

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THS: Evaluations

October 1, 2013 Leave a comment

This is an initial set of evaluations of the cards in Theros. Here’re what my various evaluations mean:

  • Bomb (B): Will usually win the game if not dealt with and also difficult to deal with or play around, e.g., large flyers or mass removal.
  • Exceptional (+): A superior card that will turn the tide in your favor, e.g., most unconditional removal that isn’t overcosted or a 3/3 flyer for 4 mana.
  • Good (/): The bread and butter of most decks, e.g., a 2/2 flyer or a vanilla 3/3 for 3 mana.
  • Situational/Filler (~): Good in the right deck, filler in most others, e.g., a vanilla 2/1 in a deck that is not particularly aggressive.
  • Sideboard (S): Useful to have in your sideboard, but not usually playable maindeck, e.g., artifact/enchantment destruction or color hosers that aren’t good if you’re not playing against those colors.
  • Unplayable (x): Should not be played except in the right deck or under exceptional circumstances, e.g., a vanilla 1/1 for 1 mana. Some unplayable creatures can be sided in against the right deck, e.g., a vanilla 1/3 for 3 mana might still be sided in against an aggressive deck.
  • TBD (?): Requires more analysis or more experience with the format to evaluate, e.g., a card that depends on how many playable enchantments there are in the format.

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