KTK: List of instant-speed tricks

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in the format.  The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does.  Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell and often leaves out certain details.  Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables; please let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity.  Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell has one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost listed has a mana cost of 2W.  I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost, is multicolored, or costs more than the column it is specified in.  Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return permanent to owner’s hand), bury (destroy permanent & it cannot be regenerated), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), ETB (enters the battlefield), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), GY (graveyard), I (instant), L (land), loot X (draw X cards, then discard X cards), lose X (lose X life), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), raise (return card from your graveyard to your hand), reanimate (return card from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent or player unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., the third mode of Mardu Charm is described as Duress to avoid having to write the full description.

M15: List of instant-speed tricks

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in the format. The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does. Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell and often leaves out certain details. Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables; please let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity. Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell has one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost has a mana cost of 2W. I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost, is multicolored, or costs more than the column it is specified in. Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return permanent to owner’s hand), bury (destroy permanent & it cannot be regenerated), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), ETB (enters the battlefield), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), GY (graveyard), I (instant), L (land), loot X (draw X cards, then discard X cards), lose X (lose X life), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), raise (return card from your graveyard to your hand), reanimate (return card from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent or player unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., Hunter’s Ambush is described as Fog all nongreen Cs to avoid having to write the full description.

JOU: Memorizing the instant-speed tricks

Most of the analysis I do here is focused on draft. However, we have a Sealed deck PTQ in Bellevue this weekend, so I’m going to look at the list of tricks in Journey into Nyx and see if there’s an easy way to memorize more of them, as I’d done previously for Theros.

Let’s start by looking at the number of instant-speed tricks in each color:

  • White: 5 = 1 common + 2 uncommon + 2 rare, 2 with strive = 1 common + 1 uncommon
  • Blue: 8 = 4 common + 2 uncommon + 2 rare, 4 with strive = 1 common + 2 uncommon + 1 rare
  • Black: 6 = 2 common + 2 uncommon + 2 rare, 2 with strive = 1 common + 1 rare
  • Red: 5 = 3 common + 1 uncommon + 1 rare, 1 common with strive
  • Green: 6 = 1 common + 3 uncommon + 2 rare, 5 with strive = 1 common + 3 uncommon + 1 rare
  • Multicolor: 1 uncommon without strive

I find it useful to know the total number of tricks in each color as that allows me to verify whether I’ve considered all the possibilities in certain crucial game states. When practising my recall of the tricks, it also allows me to verify whether I was able to remember all the tricks in a color. If I didn’t, I refer to a printout I carry of the list of tricks. Doing this regularly helps me increase the speed with which I can recall the tricks available given the mana my opponent has open. If you ignore blue and multicolor, the totals are 5, 6, 5, and 6. Each color has 2 rare tricks, except red which has 1. Similarly, most colors have 2 uncommon tricks, but red has 1 and green has 3, and there is 1 multicolor (G/U) trick.

Several of the instant-speed tricks in this format have strive. Knowing how many of the total number have strive can also help with memorizing the list. Blue and green have the most number of instant-speed spells with strive, 4 and 5 respectively. White and black have 2 each, and red has just 1. Each color has a common spell with strive whose casting cost is C+N(2C), where C is a given colored mana symbol (W, U, B, R, or G). White, blue, and green also each have an uncommon spell with stive whose casting cost is 2C+N(1C).

The set also has a cycle of flash enchantments at rare: Dictate of Heliod, Dictate of Kruphix, Dictate of Erebos, Dictate of the Twin Gods, and Dictate of Karametra. Remembering these 2.5 cycles gives us 13 of the 31 tricks, leaving us with only 18 to remember.

Another thing I do to help my recall of the tricks is to break them down into 5 categories: creature removal (including bounce), non-creature removal, combat tricks, countermagic, and other (usually card draw). Removal that hits both creatures and non-creatures is classified as creature removal since creatures are the most common (and usually also the most important) permanents in limited formats. Combat tricks are spells that you should be aware of when entering combat, e.g., pump spells and other enhancers, spells that let you temporarily neutralize opposing creatures (tap, reduce power, Fog), and flash creatures. Here’s what available in each color:

  • White: 5 = 1 creature removal spell (Reprisal) + 1 non-creature removal spell (Deicide) + 3 combat tricks (Ajani’s Presence, Phalanx Formation, and Dictate of Heliod, sorted by converted mana cost and rarity)
  • Blue: 8 = 1 creature removal spells (Hubris) + 1 non-creature removal spell (Kiora’s Dismissal) + 4 combat tricks (Aerial Formation, Hour of Need, Polymorphous Rush, and Cloaked Siren) + 1 countermagic (Countermand) + 1 other (Dictate of Kruphix)
  • Black: 6 = 3 creature removal spells (Feast of Dreams, Nightmarish End, and Silence the Believers) + 3 combat tricks (Cruel Feeding, Ritual of the Returned, and Dictate of Erebos)
  • Red: 5 = 3 creature removal spells (Magma Spray, Starfall, and Riddle of Lightning) + 2 combat tricks (Rouse the Mob and Dictate of the Twin Gods)
  • Green: 6 = 1 creature removal spell (Setessan Tactics) + 1 non-creature removal spell (Consign to Dust) + 3 combat tricks (Nature’s Panoply, Solidarity of Heroes, and Colossal Heroics) + 1 other (Dictate of Karametra)
  • Multicolor: 1 combat trick (Fleetfeather Cockatrice)

Note that white, blue, and green each have 1 creature removal spell and 1 non-creature removal spell, with the rest being combat tricks or other (blue also has 1 counterspell). Black and red both have 3 removal spells each, with the rest being combat tricks.

Next, let’s look at the mana curves and rarities of the tricks:

  • White’s has 1 trick that costs 1 mana, 2 tricks that cost 2 mana, 1 trick that costs 3 mana, none that cost 4 mana, and 1 trick that costs 5 mana. I’ll abbreviate this as 1/2/1/0/1. Because of white’s distribution of tricks across rarities, white will have 2.5 JOU tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Blue has 2/1/3/2/0, with 6.5 tricks in the average 8-person draft (5.2 if you exclude the counterspells).
  • Black has 1/1/1/2/1, with 3.9 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Red has 2/0/0/0/3, with 4.6 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Green has 1/2/2/0/1, with 2.9 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • The only multicolor trick costs 5 mana, and there are 0.4 copies of it in the average 8-person draft.

From this we can tell that blue will have the most tricks in a typical 8-person draft, even if you exclude counterspells (which are not usually played maindeck in limited formats). After that, black and red have a similar number of tricks (about 4.25), and white and green have the fewest (about 2.75). Black and red have particularly memorable distributions. Black’s list looks like a diagonal line in the list of tricks because of the distribution (2 commons at 1cc and 2cc, 2 uncommons at 3cc and 4cc, and 2 rares at 4cc and 5cc). Red’s list looks like a set of uneven pronghorns, with 2 spells at 1cc and 3 at 5cc. White and green have almost identical distributions with respect to both mana curve and rarity, with the only difference being that green has an additional 3-mana trick at uncommon.

Also, note that there are 4 ways to get a creature into play at instant speed: Cloaked Siren (blue common), Hour of Need (blue uncommon), Ritual of the Returned (black uncommon), and Fleetfeather Cockatrice (G/U uncommon). Only one of these does not require blue mana.

I hope these strategies help you memorize the tricks in Journey into Nyx, and that this helps you do well at the tournament.

BNG: List of instant-speed tricks

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in the format. The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does. Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell and often leaves out certain things. Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables; please let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity. Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell has one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost has a mana cost of 2W. I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost, is multicolored, or costs more than the column it is specified in. Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return permanent to owner’s hand), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter when used as a verb (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), I (instant), L (land), lose X (lose X life), opp (opponent), opp’s X (X controlled by opponent), P (player or power, depending on context), prot (protection), PW (planeswalker), reanimate (return permanent from the graveyard to the battlefield), redirect X dmg from A to B (next X dmg that would be dealt to A is dealt to B instead), regen (regenerate), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), T (toughness), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent or player unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., Steam Augury is described as a flipped Fact or Fiction to avoid having to write the full description.

THS: Maindeck flyer removal

Today, we’ll use the updated card valuations to determine whether it makes sense to maindeck Shredding Winds in Theros. (Arbor Colossus and Bow of Nylea also kill creatures with flying, but those cards are good enough to play on their other merits, so I won’t evaluate them here.)

This spreadsheet lists all the flyers in Theros. Yellow highlight means that a cards can grant flying to another creature (e.g., Cavalry Pegasus); if the text is gray instead of black, it means the card does not have flying itself (e.g., Fleetfeather Sandals). A few things stand out:

  • Shredding Winds can kill all these creatures with the exception of Prognostic Sphinx and Sentry of the Underworld (if they have WB open), a really large Wingsteed Rider, and perhaps a bestow creature enchanting an already large creature.
  • White, blue, and black will have 9, 11, and 4 creatures with flying in an average 8-person draft. Each color is shared on average by about 3 players, so a typical W/U deck will have 7 flyers and Shredding Winds will usually have a target even if you don’t seen a flyer in game 1. Every other color combination will have 5 or fewer flyers, so it doesn’t make sense to side in Shredding Winds unless you see a must-kill flyer.
  • You don’t need flyer removal against red or green since they have almost no flyers. On the artifact side, neither Anvilwrought Raptor nor Fleetfeather Sandals are particularly exciting, and you’re better off siding in artifact removal against them anyway.
  • Nessian Asp is excellent in this format and so it likely to be played by every green deck that has it. It can block and kill all of the creatures listed in the spreadsheet except Abhorrent Overlord (rare) and Ashen Rider (mythic), which are marked with an S in the Must Kill column. In addition, there are 4 other flyers marked with a Y that I consider must kill — Cavalry Pegasus (white common), Wingsteed Rider (white common), Prognostic Sphinx (blue rare), and Shipwreck Singer (U/B uncommon) — each of which will win the game eventually if left untouched. These are flyers you need to be able to kill even if you have multiple Nessian Asps. Both commons in the list are white, so it might make sense to side Shredding Winds in against W/X decks if you have other cards you need to side out, even if you haven’t seen many flyers and they are not W/U.

From the analysis above, I would say it doesn’t make sense to run Shredding Winds maindeck, but it is a great sideboard cards against decks with flyers, and it can be brought in preemptively against W/U decks which tend to have a lot of flyers, and even against other W/X decks which may have fewer flyers since white has a couple of common flyers that can take over or win the game given enough time.

THS: Memorizing the instant-speed tricks

Most of the analysis I do here is focused on draft. However, we have a Sealed deck PTQ in Seattle this weekend, so I will use this week to focus on preparing for Sealed deck tournaments. I will try to write a post each day this week.

There are 4 important ways I prepare for Sealed PTQs:

  1. Build Sealed decks from pools, either by opening packs, using sites like tappedout.net to generate Sealed pools, or finding articles online that have Sealed pools. Opening packs has the advantage that you get practice with actual physical cards. You also get to practice building a deck under time constraints, and it’s easy to take the deck with you so you can play against other people and solicit opinions on your build. Using an online Sealed deck generator also lets you practice building a deck under time constraints. Many of these sites are free and allow you to play against opponents online, so it’s easier to get experience playing the deck, but it’s a bit more difficult to ask for opinions on your build. Articles have the advantage that they are often accompanied by the deck the author built from the pool, some commentary on the choices made, and how that build performed in an actual event.
  2. Play with the deck you build. This allows you to develop a sense of whether the format is fast or slow, so you can build decks accordingly and consider whether you might want to play first instead of drawing first as in most Sealed formats. You might even develop a sense of the Sealed metagame, e.g., most Scars of Mirrodin Sealed decks were R/W, so you could often maindeck cards that were particularly strong against those colors.
  3. Memorize the list of tricks (instants and creatures with flash) in the format.
  4. Figure out whether any cards that might be considered sideboard cards in a different format are playable maindeck in this format.

While #1 and #2 are very important, there are plenty of sites offering Sealed pools and analysis of possible builds. Moreover, nothing is a substitute for actually getting some experience building/playing some Sealed decks yourself. So I will focus on #3 today and #4 later this week.

2 months ago, I’d posted a list of the tricks in the set. What’s the best way to memorize this list and recall them quickly (since we don’t have the luxury of infinite time during a tournament)? I always start by making sure I know the number of tricks per color: white has 6, blue has 10, black has 7, red has 6, green has 7, and there are 3 multicolor tricks. If you ignore blue and multicolor, the rest have a pattern of 6, 7, 6, and 7, so the totals are easy enough to remember. Part of the reason it is useful to know the total number of tricks in each color is that it allow me to verify whether I’ve considered all the possibilities in certain crucial game states. When practising my recall of the tricks, it also allows me to easily determine whether I remembered all the tricks in a given color. If I didn’t, I refer to a printout I carry of the list of tricks. Doing this regularly helps me increase the speed with which I can recall the tricks available given the mana my opponent has open.

Another thing I do to help my recall of the tricks is to categorize them into 5 categories: creature removal (including bounce), non-creature removal, combat tricks, countermagic, and other (usually card draw). Removal that kills both creatures and non-creatures gets classified as creature removal since creatures are usually the most important permanents in limited formats. Combat tricks are spells that you should be aware of when entering combat, e.g., pump spells and other enhancers, spells that let you temporarily neutralize opposing creatures (tap, reduce power, Fog), and flash creatures. Here’s what available in each color:

  • White has 6: 1 creature removal spell (Last Breath), 1 non-creature removal spell (Ray of Dissolution), and 4 combat tricks (Gods Willing, Battlewise Valor, Dauntless Onslaught, and Divine Verdict, sorted from low to high converted mana cost, irrespective of rarity).
  • Blue has 10: 2 creature removal spells (Voyage’s End and Griptide), 3 combat tricks (Lost in a Labyrinth, Triton Tactics, and Breaching Hippocamp), and 5 countermagic (Annul, Swan Song, Stymied Hopes, Gainsay, and Dissolve).
  • Black has 7: 4 creature removal spells (Dark Betrayal, Pharika’s Cure, Hero’s Downfall, and Lash of the Whip) and 3 combat tricks (Boon of Erebos, Cutthroat Maneuver, and Rescue from the Underworld).
  • Red has 6: 4 creature removal spells (Spark Jolt – 1 damage, Magma Jet – 2 damage, Lightning Strike – 3 damage, and Boulderfall – 5 damage) and 2 combat tricks (Titan’s Strength and Coordinated Assault).
  • Green has 7: 1 creature removal spell (Shredding Winds), 1 non-creature removal spell (Artisan’s Sorrow), and 5 combat tricks (Warriors’ Lesson, Savage Surge, Defend the Hearth, Feral Invocation, and Boon Satyr).
  • Multicolor has 3: 1 non-creature removal (Destructive Revelry), 1 combat trick (Horizon Chimera), and 1 other (Steam Augury). Note also that the multicolor tricks all involve blue, red, or green. In fact, each of the 3 combinations (UR, RG, and GU) is represented once in the multicolor tricks.

Note that both white and green have 1 creature removal spell and 1 non-creature removal spell, with the rest being combat tricks. Black and red have 4 removal spells each, with the rest being combat tricks. Most pump in the set is +2/+2 (Battlewise Valor, Dauntless Onslaught, Savage Surge, Feral Invocation). Boon of Erebos also increases power by 2, but regenerates the creature instead of increasing its toughness. 4 of these 5 are common, while Dauntless Onslaught is uncommon. Cutthroat Maneuver and Coordinated Assault, both part of the previously mentioned cycle of uncommons, increase power by 1. Titan’s Strength is +3/+1, and the rare Boon Satyr’s bestow ability grants +4/+2.

One thing you’ve likely noticed that can help you remember some of the tricks is that each color in Theros has a combat trick at uncommon that affects 2 creature: Dauntless Onslaught, Triton Tactics, Cutthroat Maneuver, Coordinated Assault, and Warriors’ Lesson. In addition to paying attention to cycles, it can also help to think about what effects each color usually has access to, since most sets include variants on a number of staples. For instance:

  • White usually has some creature removal, enchantment removal, and pump spells. It also usually has a spell like Divine Verdict that only affects attacking and/or blocking creatures, and a spell like Gods Willing that gives a creature protection from a color.
  • Blue usually has access to bounce, neutralizing spells, flash creatures, countermagic, and card draw.
  • Black usually has removal and some tricks.
  • Red usually has removal and some pump effects, most of which enhance power and grant first strike in leiu of enhancing toughness. Red also usually has instant-speed artifact removal and a rare effect like Shunt, but neither of these are present in Theros.
  • Green usually has flyer removal, artifact and/or enchantment removal, a couple of pump spells (one of which usually offers a permanent pump, usually in the form of +1/+1 counters, but in the form of a +2/+2 enchantment this time), flash creatures, and a Fog variant.
  • Multicolor spells offer effects that are available to either color, but tend to prefer effects that are available to both colors.

Next, let’s look at the mana curves and rarities of the tricks:

  • White’s has 1 trick that costs 1 mana, 2 tricks that cost 2 mana, 2 tricks that cost 3 mana, and 1 trick that costs 4 mana. I’ll abbreviate this here as 1/2/2/1. Because of white’s distribution of tricks across rarities, white will have 13.1 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Blue has 4/3/1/2, with 18.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft (10.7 if you exclude counterspells).
  • Black has 2/1/1/1/2, with 12.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Red has 3/2/0/0/1 (the last one actually costs 8 mana, not 5, but this pattern is easier to remember and there aren’t very many 8-mana tricks), with 11.9 tricks in the average 8-person draft.
  • Green has 1/2/3/1/(1) (the (1) refers to Boon Satyr’s bestow ability), with 12.3 tricks in the average 8-person draft.

From this we can tell that blue has the most tricks if you include counterspells. If you exclude counterspells, all the colors have access to roughly the same number of tricks. Blue and red also have the most number of tricks that cost 2 mana or less.

I hope these strategies help you memorize the tricks in Theros, and that this helps you do well at the tournament.

THS: List of instant-speed tricks

This is a list of all the instant-speed tricks in the format. The first table has the spell names while the second one has abbreviated spell descriptions in case you don’t remember what the spell does. Note that the latter table may not accurately represent all uses of the spell. Also, I sometimes make mistakes while filling out these tables; please let me know if you spot any issues.

Both tables categorize the tricks by converted mana cost, color, and rarity. Unless specified otherwise, each colored spell has one colored mana in its mana cost with the rest being generic mana, so a 3-mana white spell with no explicit cost has a mana cost of 2W. I also specify mana costs if the spell has X in its mana cost, is multicolored, or costs more than the column it is specified in. Spells in bold can leave a creature in play, e.g., flash creatures, spells that create token creatures, or spells that allow you to cast creatures at instant speed.

Here’s how to interpret the second table:

  • Abbreviations used: A (artifact), attkr (attacker), blkr (blocker), bounce (return permanent to owner’s hand), C (creature), CMC (converted mana cost), counter (counter a spell), dmg (damage), draw X (draw X cards), E (enchantment), flyer (creature with flying), freeze X (tap X and it doesn’t untap next turn), gain X (gain X life), I (instant), L (land), lose X (lose X life), opp (opponent), P (player), prot (protection), reanimate (return permanent from the graveyard to the battlefield), S (sorcery), sac (sacrifice), your X (X you control).
  • Spells that confer an effect (+X/+Y, -X/-Y, hexproof, first strike, prot from a color, etc.) last until end of turn unless specified otherwise.
  • Spells can target any legal permanent or player unless otherwise specified, e.g., X dmg without any qualifiers means that the spell does X damage to any creature or player.
  • Spell descriptions sometimes mention other spells as a way to describe their effects, e.g., Steam Augury is described as a flipped Fact or Fiction to avoid having to write the full description.

M14: Archaeomancer

To date, I’ve mentioned Archaeomancer in the context of a few different archetypes: U/R control, U/G control, U/G mill, and W/U skies. And intuitively, it would seem that U/R or U/B are the best color pairs for Archaeomancer since you can regrow instant/sorcery removal in those decks. (Much of the removal in white and blue is in the form of enchantments, and the removal in green is largely conditional, hitting flyers and non-creature permanents.) However, I always prefer hard numbers (hence this blog), so let’s get crunching.

M14 has 61 instants and sorceries. This spreadsheet breaks them down by color, rarity, and quality. It’s clear that red and black have the most number of exceptional instants/sorceries per player in an average M14 draft (0.6 and 0.4 respectively). If you combine bomb, exceptional, and playable instants/sorceries, red and green have the most (1.4 and 1.2 respectively). This corroborates some of my intuition above, and seems to reinforce U/R control as the best home for Archaeomancer.

However, this also include spells that are better in aggro decks (e.g., Act of Treason and most combat tricks) or spells that usually win you the game when cast (e.g., Devout Invocation and Planar Cleansing). Let’s take a slightly different look at this; let’s look at which instants/sorceries we’d most want to recast:

  • White: Celestial Flare
  • Blue: Cancel, Divination, Essence Scatter, Frost Breath, Negate, Time Ebb, Tome Scour, Opportunity (uncommon); you won’t usually want to recur Traumatize since the second casting will typically mill about as many cards as a Tome Scour
  • Black: Altar’s Reap, Liturgy of Blood, Wring Flesh, Corrupt (uncommon), Doom Blade (uncommon)
  • Red: Chandra’s Outrage, Shock, Flames of the Firebrand (uncommon), Molten Birth (uncommon), Volcanic Geyser (uncommon)
  • Green: Fog, Hunt the Weak, Plummet, Howl of the Night Pack (uncommon), Windstorm (uncommon)

Blue itself has the most number of instants and sorceries we’d want to regrow with Archaeomancer, and white has the least. Black, red, and green have similar numbers of them, but red has the most number of good removal spells, followed by black. The green instants and sorceries have very specific purposes, with Plummet and Windstorm only being useful against flyers, and Fog usually only useful if you’re playing a mill deck or if your opponent has falter effects.

Conclusion: Archaeomancer is at its best in U/R control where it can recur removal and blue card draw and counterspells, and in G/U mill where it can recur mill spells and cards like Fog and Frost Breath that can buy you time to mill your opponent out. It may also be playable in U/G control and U/B. That is a fairly limited set of archetypes and Archaeomancer only leaves a 1/2 body behind, so I would consider it only conditionally playable.

M14: Plummet vs. Windstorm

When drafting green decks, I’ve faced the choice of drafting either Plummet or Windstorm from the same pack, or having both in my draft pool but not knowing whether either is worthy of maindecking. Another choice I’ve faced is deciding which one to side in against an opponent who has one or more flyers in their deck. Let’s see if we can figure out the right choices in these scenarios.

If you’re running green as a main color, Deadly Recluse and Giant Spider are great ways to deal with flyers. They can also defend quite well against non-flyers, and sometimes even get to attack. Deadly Spider is easier to kill than Giant Spider, so our analysis will look at 3 different categories of flyers:

  • must-kill non-defender flyers (see the spreadsheet from my post on creature evaluations)
  • flyers with power >= 4 (or deathtouch) and toughness >= 3, since they can kill Giant Spider without dying in the process
  • all non-defender flyers

There are only 5 must-kill flyers in M14: 1 common, 1 uncommon, 1 rare, and 2 mythic. An average draft will have 0.57 of these flyers per player, all in white, blue, and black. Must-kill means that you can’t reliably block or gang block the creature with flyers/spiders to neutralize it, or that it has a static ability that makes it dangerous even if it’s not in combat, which is why Nightwing Shade, Air Servant, and Galerider Sliver fall into this category, along with the more obvious inclusion of Archangel of Thune and Windreader Sphinx.

There are 6 flyers with power >= 4 (or deathtouch) and toughness >= 3: 2 uncommons (only Serra Angel and Sengir Vampire, since we’ve already counted Air Servant above), 2 rares (Jace’s Mindseeker and Shivan Dragon), and 2 mythics (Shadowborn Demon and Scourge of Valkas). An average draft will have 0.45 of these flyers per player, primarily in black. Note that although Shivan Dragon and Scourge of Valkas can attack for a lot of damage, I don’t consider them must-kill since firebreathing doesn’t pump toughness, so they can still be blocked and killed by multiple opposing flyers/spiders.

Adding these numbers tells us that the average draft will only have about 1 flyer per player that falls into either of these 2 categories, so you probably don’t want to run either Plummet or Windstorm in your maindeck. Obviously, there are exceptions to this. For instance, if you have Diabolic Tutor or Ring of Three Wishes in your deck, you could run a singleton Plummet or Windstorm as a silver bullet. If you have a U/G control deck with limited creature removal, you’re more likely to face a bomb flyer that you can’t handle, so Plummet or Windstorm might have a place in that deck, especially if you can regrow it using Archaeomancer. And if you have an otherwise really strong monogreen or G/R deck that lacks flying defense, you might run Plummet and/or Windstorm maindeck to shore up that weakness and as insurance against your opponent having a flying bomb.

Finally, let’s look at all non-defender flyers in M14. All of them are playable, except perhaps Dragon Hatchling. Let’s exclude those creatures and then look at the number of flyers we would expect a player in those colors to have in an 8-person draft, assuming there are 3 drafters in each color. (This analysis is more useful here than looking at the average number of these flyers per drafter.)

  • White: 3 common, 1 uncommon, 1 rare, 1 mythic -> 8.9 at the table, or 3.0 per white drafter
  • Blue: 4 commons, 2 uncommons, 2 rares, 1 mythic -> 12.9 at the table, or 4.3 per blue drafter
  • Black: 2 commons, 1 uncommon, 1 rare, 1 mythic -> 6.6 at the table, or 2.2 per black drafter
  • Red: 1 uncommon, 2 rares, 1 mythic -> 2.2 at the table, or 0.7 per black drafter

From this analysis, we can see that only U/X decks are likely to have more than 1 flyer on the table at a time, and so are the only ones against which you’d rather bring in Windstorm. There are only 2 rare and 2 mythic flyers with toughness >= 5 (I’m including Nightmare but not Nightwing Shade here), so Windstorm will usually be able to take down all your opponent’s flyers. (And sometime they’ll play a Galerider Sliver and you’ll knock out most of their side :)) Of course, if your deck also has flyers, you may still prefer Plummet, even when playing against a U/W or U/B deck.

M14: Maindeck countermagic

M14 has 4 counterspells: Essence Scatter, Negate, Cancel, and Spell Blast. Are any of them good choices for the maindeck?

The spreadsheet I’d created for my last post shows that a typical M14 draft deck has 4 good targets for Essence Scatter (1 bomb + 2.8 exceptional) and 3 good targets for Negate (0.2 bombs + 2.5 exceptional). That means that you will only encounter 1-2 worthy targets per game for either of them. Even then, you need to have the counterspell in hand and have mana open to cast it, so they’re unlikely to be consistently good.

Cancel and Spell Blast have about 6.5 good targets (1.2 bomb + 5.3 exceptional). However, they’re more expensive to cast, especially Spell Blast, so you’re less likely to have mana open to cast them when your opponent casts one of those targets. Also, some of these targets are likely to end up sitting in sideboards, either due to hatedrafts or players switching colors, so you’re less likely to encounter them than the numbers indicate. Finally, countermagic does very little if you’re behind on the board, and good players can sometimes play around it.

Given this, you probably want to leave countermagic in your sideboard unless you’re playing a U/R control or U/G mill deck. In such a deck, Essence Scatter can prevent you from falling behind early and the countermagic can be regrown using Archaeomancer. Also, since these decks don’t usually win quickly, you’re likely to see more of an opponent’s decks and therefore more likely to encounter their bombs.

Other scenarios in which you might want to maindeck countermagic are if your deck lacks creature removal or if you’ve passed multiple bombs and know you’re likely to face them.

EDIT: Someone pointed out yesterday that I hadn’t covered some other reasons to run countermagic. He specifically mentioned that Negate can be useful if you have bombs or combos to protect, which is a valid point. In addition, countermagic gets better if you have other things you can do on your opponent’s turn if they don’t play anything you’re interested in countering. For instance, you might be able to play a creature with flash (although there are only 2 in M14, and both cost 4 mana) or use an instant-speed activated abilities (such as Rod of Ruin and Ring of Three Wishes).